ЕCONOMETRIC FORECAST OF AGRICULTURAL SECTOR INVESTING IN LVOV REGION


RJOAS, 7(31), July 2014





                ECONOMETRIC FORECAST OF AGRICULTURAL SECTOR INVESTING IN LVOV REGION




Rostyslav Lytvyn, Research assistant
Lvov national university of veterinary medicine and biotechnologies named after S.Z. Gzhytskyj, Lvov, Ukraine E-mail: lytvynr@ukr.net




                ABSTRACT




Purpose of economic processes forecasting in agriculture is more relevant and urgent in recent years with application of applied econometric methods. In represented research paper, these methods are used to forecast investment and the main agricultural industry indicators of Lvov region of Ukraine. The linear trend model, the parabolic trend model and the exponential trend model were elaborated from the period from 2000 to 2009 in this scientific study using applied statistical tool STATGRAFICS and EXCEL spreadsheets. And with assistance of these models forecast for investment on the basis of data of essential indicators of agrarian sector of the region for 2010 and 2011 was made. All models with probability р=0,95 are adequate experimental data for 2000-2009 years, that allow to make the forecast of investments and main agricultural indicators of the researched region by these models for 2010 and 2011 years. Nevertheless, it should be pointed out that, because of small amount of input data analysis of regression equations coefficients have more qualitative than quantitative influence upon resulting variable y6.




                KEY WORDS




Investment; Agrarian sector; Forecasting; Linear trend model; Parabolic trend model; Exponential trend model.

      Accordingly to statistical data of agricultural sector of Lvov region and Ukraine provided by State Statistical Service of Ukraine for 2000-2009 years, presented in tables (1) in this applied research calculate main dynamics and trend models and calculate predicted values and their estimates for forthcoming two years with application of the applied statistical tool STATGRAFICS and EXCEL spreadsheets.
      To vital issues of investing processes in agriculture of Ukraine’s economy have dedicated one’s researches many prominent scientists, among them: A. Carita, I. Luyt, N. Santos et al. [1], K. Crane, F.S. Larrabee [2], K. Vitale [3] and others. In this research one’s attention is paid to study investment of agriculture of Ukraine and another developing economies with assistance of econometric methods, that are displayed in scientific works of: V. Yeleyko, О. Yeleyko, I. Kopych, R.. Bodnar, М. Demchyshyn, О. Synytskyy, А. Chemerys [4-7], M.I. Gomez, E.R. Gonzales, L.F. Melo [8], F. Ruff [9], N. Carnot, V. Koen, B. Tissot [10], R.S. Mariano, Y.K. Tse [11] and R. Gupta, A. Kabundi [12].

      Input data of the models:


Table 1 - Dynamics of agricultural sector main indicators of Lvov region

Year    y6       y7       ys        y9       y10   
     bln. UAH mln. UAH mln. USD mln. pers. mln. UAH
2000  5,850     48,3    2,412     0,267      10,5  
2001  7,305     -4,2    2,412     0,283      18,8  
2002  8,578     -7,0    2,935     0,285      14,2  
2003  10,547    45,0    0,041     0,228      30,7  
2004  13,992    63,2    0,064     0,216      40,3  
2005  17,192    70,8    0,438     0,213      75,1  
2006  21,486   166,3    0,612     0,189      84,0  
2007  27,987   231,9    1,653     0,188     211,0  
2008  35,534    77,7    31,783    0,177     549,8  
2009  39,893    17,9    91,482    0,175     321,9  

Source: State Statistic Service of Lvov region and Ukraine [13,14].

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