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Стратегические решения и риск-менеджмент, 2018, № 1

научный рецензируемый журнал
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Стратегические решения и риск-менеджмент : научный рецензируемый журнал. – Санкт-Петербург : Издательский дом «Реальная экономика», 2018. - № 1. – 135 с. – ISSN 2618-9984. - Текст : электронный. - URL: https://znanium.ru/catalog/product/1447576 (дата обращения: 29.03.2024)
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STRATEGIC 
DECISIONS 
AND 
RISK 
MANAGEMENT
&

решения

рискcтратегические
менеджмент

№1 (106) 2018

16+

Международная научно-практическая конференция
УПРАВЛЕНЧЕСКИЕ НАУКИ В СОВРЕМЕННОМ МИРЕ

Конференция уже несколько лет выступает важной платформой 
для обсуждения самых разнообразных направлений исследований 
в контексте управленческих наук.

Прием заявок на участие в конференции осуществляется через Личный 
кабинет пользователя.

ЦЕЛЬ КОНФЕРЕНЦИИ

Предоставление площадки для научных дискуссий и обеспечения 
взаимодействия между исследователями, аналитиками и практическими 
специалистами по актуальным проблемам управленческих наук.

ПУБЛИКАЦИЯ МАТЕРИАЛА

По итогам каждой конференции выпускается сборник научных докладов, 
входящий в Российский индекс научного цитирования (РИНЦ).

Доклады принимаются на русском и на английском языках.

СЕКЦИИ

Тематика конференции включает обсуждение актуальных вопросов 
научных и практических исследований в следующих областях:

• 
Цифровая экономика и е-business
• 
Современный маркетинг и логистика
• 
Инновации и современные бизнес-модели
• 
Управление инвестициями в реальном секторе
• 
От управления информацией к управлению знаниями
• 
Совершенствование системы корпоративного управления: новые 
подходы, технологии и инструменты
• 
Операционный менеджмент и управление бизнес-процессами
• 
Математические методы и модели в управлении
• 
Управление человеческими ресурсами
• 
Актуальные проблемы и перспективы развития государственного 
управления
• 
Теоретические проблемы управления
• 
Оценка эффективности и результативности управления в организации
• 
Вопросы совершенствования антикризисного управления
• 
Управление крупными городами и городскими агломерациями
• 
Финансовый менеджмент

www.management-science.ru

КОЛОНКА РЕДАКТОРА

Уважаемые господа!

С этого номера журнал «Эффективное 
Антикризисное Управление» выходит 
под новым названием – «Стратегические решения и риск-менеджмент». Это 
знаменует начало нового этапа развития 
журнала. В рамках процесса интеграции 
российской науки в международное научное сообщество мы поставили перед 
собой задачу создания двусторонней издательской платформы для взаимодействия авторов и читателей с целью поддержки международных исследований 
в области стратегического управления, принятия стратегических 
решений и риск-менеджмента.
За последние несколько лет журнал «Эффективное Антикризисное 
Управление» добился существенных успехов: было опубликовано 
около 700 научных и практических статей, наукометрические показатели журнала значительно выросли, издание получило высокую 
оценку в научной и профессиональной среде. Редакции журнала 
«Стратегические решения и риск-менеджмент» предстоит сохранить и приумножить достигнутое, расширяя круг тем, привлекая 
новых авторов, публикуя интересные и оригинальные научные 
статьи.
В обновленном журнале особое внимание мы будем уделять теоретическим и эмпирическим исследованиям, а также кейсам 
из управленческой практики по следующим направлениям:
– Стратегическое управление в бизнесе и общественном секторе;
– Стратегические изменения в деятельности организации;
– Стратегические управленческие решения: методы разработки, 
обоснования, принятия, реализации и контроля;
– Межфирменное взаимодействие, слияния и поглощения;
– Инновации, предпринимательство и формирование новых 
бизнес-моделей;
– Управление технологическим развитием;
– Устойчивые конкурентные преимущества;
– Управление переходом к устойчивому развитию;
– Концепции и методы управления эффективностью и результативностью деятельности организации;
– Управление знаниями;
– Стратегии управления различными видами рисков;
– Риск-менеджмент и управленческие решения;
– Оздоровление бизнеса (организации).
Мы будем рады видеть вас среди авторов нашего журнала и с благодарностью примем ваши отзывы об обновленном издании.

Главный редактор журнала
«Стратегические решения и риск-менеджмент»
д. э. н. А. В. ТРАЧУК

РЕДАКЦИОННАЯ КОЛЛЕГИЯ

ПРЕДСЕДАТЕЛЬ 
РЕДАКЦИОННОЙ 
КОЛЛЕГИИ

ПОРФИРЬЕВ Борис Николаевич
Доктор экономических наук, профессор, 
академик РАН, заместитель директора 
Института народнохозяйственного 
прогнозирования, зав. лабораторией 
анализа и прогнозирования природных 
и техногенных рисков экономики, 
РАН, Москва

ЗАМЕСТИТЕЛЬ 
ПРЕДСЕДАТЕЛЯ

ЭСКИНДАРОВ Михаил 
Абдрахманович
Доктор экономических наук, 
профессор, ректор, Финансовый 
университет при Правительстве 
Российской Федерации, 
Москва

ГЛАВНЫЙ 
РЕДАКТОР

ТРАЧУК Аркадий 
Владимирович
Доктор экономических наук, 
профессор, руководитель 
Департамента менеджмента, 
научный руководитель Факультета 
менеджмента, Финансовый 
университет при Правительстве 
Российской Федерации, генеральный 
директор АО «Гознак», Москва

БЫКОВ Андрей Александрович
Доктор физико-математических наук, профессор, заслуженный 
деятель науки РФ, вице-президент Российского научного 
общества анализа риска, Москва

ГИТЕЛЬМАН Лазарь  Давидович
Доктор экономических наук, профессор, заведующий 
кафедрой систем управления энергетикой и промышленными 
предприятиями Высшей школы экономики и менеджмента, 
Уральский федеральный университет имени первого Президента 
России Б. Н. Ельцина, Екатеринбург

КАРЛИК Александр Евсеевич
Доктор экономических наук, профессор, заведующий кафедрой 
экономики и управления предприятиями и производственными 
комплексами, Санкт-Петербургский государственный 
экономический университет, 
Санкт-Петербург

КЛЕЙНЕР Георгий Борисович
Доктор экономических наук, профессор, член-корреспондент 
РАН, заместитель директора Центрального экономикоматематического института Российской академии наук, научный 
руководитель стратегических инициатив и проектов научноинтеграционного объединения «АБАДА», Москва

ЛИНДЕР Наталия Вячеславовна
Кандидат экономических наук, профессор, заместитель 
главного редактора, заместитель руководителя Департамента 
менеджмента, руководитель научно-исследовательской 
лаборатории «Стратегии и инновации в бизнесе», Финансовый 
университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации, Москва

ЛОГИНОВ Евгений Леонидович 
Доктор экономических наук, профессор, заместитель директора 
по научной работе, Институт проблем рынка РАН, Москва

МАРИНОВА Светла
Ph.D., доцент, Университет Ольборга, Дания

ПАНОВА Галина Сергеевна 
Доктор экономических наук, профессор, заведующая 
кафедрой «Банки, денежное обращение и кредит», Московский 
государственный институт международных отношений 
(университет) Министерства иностранных дел Российской 
Федерации, Москва

ПЕТРОВСКИЙ Алексей Борисович
Доктор технических наук, профессор, заведующий лабораторией 
методов и систем поддержки принятия решений ФГБУН, 
Институт системного анализа Российской академии наук 
(ИСА РАН),  Москва

ПРОКОФЬЕВ Станислав Евгеньевич
Доктор экономических наук, профессор, заведующий кафедрой 
«Государственное и муниципальное управление», Финансовый 
университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации, Москва

РАСТОВА Юлия Ивановна
Доктор экономических наук, профессор, 
Санкт-Петербургский государственный экономический 
университет, Санкт–Петербург

СОЛЕСВИК Марина
Ph.D., профессор, бизнес-школа Университета НОРД, Норвегия

ТОМИНЦ Полона
Ph.D., профессор Департамента количественных 
методов анализа Факультета экономики и бизнеса, 
Университет Марибора, Словения.

ФЕДОТОВА Марина Алексеевна
Доктор экономических наук, профессор, руководитель 
Департамента корпоративных финансов и корпоративного 
управления, Финансовый университет при Правительстве 
Российской Федерации, Москва

ЦВЕТКОВ Валерий Анатольевич
Доктор экономических наук, профессор, член-корреспондент 
РАН, директор, Институт проблем рынка Российской академии 
наук, Москва

ШАФЕР Тереза 
Ph.D., вице-президент Университета Тиффин, Огайо, США

ЮДАНОВ Андрей Юрьевич
Доктор экономических наук, профессор, Финансовый 
университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации, Москва

ЧЛЕНЫ РЕДАКЦИОННОЙ КОЛЛЕГИИ

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и риск-менеджмент»
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Издатель – ООО «Издательский дом 
«Реальная экономика»

Главный редактор – Аркадий ТРАЧУК
Литературный редактор – 
Ольга КАППОЛЬ
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Верстка – Николай КВАРТНИКОВ
Корректор – Сима ПОШИВАЛОВА

Генеральный директор – 
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Партнерские проекты по конференциям
и семинарам – Александр ПРИВАЛОВ
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Свободная цена

№1 (106) 2018

ГЛОБАЛЬНЫЙ РЫНОК ОБРАЗОВАТЕЛЬНЫХ 
ПРОДУКТОВ В IT-СФЕРЕ: 
ПРИОРИТЕТЫДЛЯРОССИЙСКИХУНИВЕРСИТЕТОВ

ПОВЕДЕНЧЕСКАЯ ЭКОНОМИКА: 
СУЩНОСТЬ И ЭТАПЫ СТАНОВЛЕНИЯ

АКТУАЛЬНЫЕ ВОПРОСЫ 
СТОИМОСТНОЙ ОЦЕНКИ КОМПАНИЙ 
В УСЛОВИЯХ ФИНТЕХ

КЛЮЧЕВЫЕ ФАКТОРЫ ЭФФЕКТИВНОГО 
ПРИМЕНЕНИЯ ТЕХНОЛОГИЙ РАСПРЕДЕЛЕННОЙ 
ГЕНЕРАЦИИ В ПРОМЫШЛЕННОСТИ

Л.Д. ГИТЕЛЬМАН, С. Н. ШАБУНИН, М.В. КОЖЕВНИКОВ, 
А. В. ГАМБУРГ, Я. С. АЙМАШЕВА, Е.М. СТАРИКОВ

58

КОНФИГУРИРОВАНИЕ ОФИСА УПРАВЛЕНИЯ 
ПРОЕКТАМИ: ОПЫТ ИННОВАЦИОННОЙ 
ПРОМЫШЛЕННОЙ КОМПАНИИ

И.В. КАТУНИНА

72

УПРАВЛЕНИЕ СПРОСОМ 
НА ЭЛЕКТРОПОТРЕБЛЕНИЕ В РОССИИ 

А.П. ДЗЮБА, И.А. СОЛОВЬЕВА
64

ОТРАСЛЕВЫЕ ОСОБЕННОСТИ ПРИМЕНЕНИЯ 
МОДЕЛЕЙ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ БАНКРОТСТВА 
ПРЕДПРИЯТИЯ

Е.А. ФЕДОРОВА, Л.Е. ХРУСТОВА, Д.В. ЧЕКРИЗОВ

И.Н. ДРОГОБЫЦКИЙ

32

ТЕХНОЛОГИИ РАСПРЕДЕЛЕННОЙ ГЕНЕРАЦИИ: 
ЭМПИРИЧЕСКИЕ ОЦЕНКИ ФАКТОРОВ 
ПРИМЕНЕНИЯ

А.В. ТРАЧУК, Н.В. ЛИНДЕР

50

ОБЛАЧНЫЕ СЕРВИСЫ: 
СТИМУЛЫ ПОЛЬЗОВАТЕЛЕЙ 
К АДАПТАЦИИ

А.Б. КУРЯТНИКОВ, Л.С. ОРЛОВА

88

CРАВНЕНИЕ ПАССАЖИРСКИХ ПЕРЕВОЗОК 
АВИАЦИОННЫМ И ЖЕЛЕЗНОДОРОЖНЫМ 
ТРАНСПОРТОМ

А. Б. МАНВЕЛИДЗЕ

118

ВНЕДРЕНИЕ СИСТЕМЫ БЕРЕЖЛИВОГО ПРОИЗВОДСТВА 
В ПРОЦЕССЫ СОЗДАНИЯ И РАЗРАБОТКИ НОВЫХ 
ПРОДУКТОВ: ПРИМЕР КОМПАНИИ «НЕСТЛЕ РОССИЯ»

Е. А. АРСЕНОВА, Т.Ю. НИКОЛАЕВА

Е.А. ДЕМЬЯНОВА

Г. Г. НАЛБАНДЯН, С. С. ЖОЛНЕРЧИК

&
решения
рискcтратегические
менеджмент

№1 2018

GLOBAL MARKET OF EDUCATIONAL PRODUCTS IN THE IT SPHERE: 
PRIORITIES FOR RUSSIAN UNIVERSITIES

L.D. GITELMAN 
Doctor of Economics, Professor, Head of the Department of 
Energy and Industrial Enterprises Management Systems at the 
FGAOU VO “Ural Federal University named after the First 
President of Russia B.N. Yeltsin”. Research interests: proactive 
management, organizational transformation, sustainable energy, 
management education. 
E-mail:ldgitelman@gmail.com

S. N. SHABUNIN  
Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor, Director of the 
Institute of Radioelectronics and Information Technologies at 
the FGAOU VO “Ural Federal University named after the First 
President of Russia B.N. Yeltsin”. Research interests: technical 
electrodynamics, telecommunication systems, radiolocation. 
E-mail: s.n.shabunin@urfu.ru

M.V. KOZHEVNIKOV  
Ph.D. in Economics, assistant professor of the Department 
of Energy and Industrial Enterprises Management Systems 
at the FGAOU VO “Ural Federal University named after the 
First President of Russia B.N. Yeltsin”. Research interests: 
science-intensive service, innovative development of industry, 
management education.
E-mail: m.v.kozhevnikov@urfu.ru

A. V. GAMBURG  
Ph.D. in Economics, assistant professor of the Department of 
Energy and Industrial Enterprises Management Systems at the 
FGAOU VO “Ural Federal University named after the First 
President of Russia B.N. Yeltsin”. Research interests: strategic 
management, telecom business management, intellectual capital 
management.
E-mail:gamburg@usp.ru

I. S. AIMASHEVA   
Deputy Director of the Department of International Educational 
Programs at the FGAOU VO “Ural Federal University named 
after the First President of Russia B.N. Yeltsin”. Research 
interests: international business management, educational 
process organization models, cross-cultural communications. 
E-mail: yana.aymasheva@gmail.com

E.M. STARIKOV   
Master’s Degree Student at the FGAOU VO “Ural Federal 
University named after the First President of Russia B.N. 
Yeltsin”. Research interests: technology entrepreneurship, 
renewable energy, digital technologies 
E-mail: theemailismine@gmail.com

 ABSTRACT: 

The article describes the key trends in education for the IT 
and radio electronics sectors, considers the comparative analysis 
of approaches to organization of scientifi c and educational 
activities in 30 foreign and domestic universities leading in 
subject ratings of QS Computer Science & Information Systems 
and Engineering – Electrical & Electronic. Characteristics of the 
trends are: 
• 
close and constantly increasing integration of 
educational and scientifi c fi elds of activity, which is refl ected in 
the emergence of interdisciplinary educational programs, linking 
the educational process to research in breakthrough areas of 
knowledge and the formation of specifi c university ecosystems 
aimed at leadership in specifi c technologies; 
• 
the variety of forms of organization of the educational 
process, the orientation towards modularity, individuality 
and continuity, which are actively used in the promotion of 
educational services; 
• 
the general backlog of Russian universities from IT 
practice and expectations of the real sector. 
The research methodology included analysis of the content 
and models for the implementation of educational products, 
expert opinions on the requirements for the formation of IT 
professionals. As a result, disparities between current industry 
trends, the current situation in education and demands of the real 
sector were defi ned. In the context of the example of a number of 
master’s programs developed at the Institute of Radioelectronics 
and Information Technologies of the Ural Federal University, a 
mechanism for integrating science, education and consulting in 
order to develop highly-demanded interdisciplinary educational 
products has been demonstrated. The results of the research can 
be used by domestic and foreign universities working in ITsegments, to increase competitiveness and implement strategic 
scientifi c and educational initiatives.

KEYWORDS: 

information 
technologies, 
radioelectronics, 
university, 
educational product, master’s program, educational process, 
interdisciplinarity, ecosystem.

&
decisions
risk
strategic
management

&
решения
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  №1 (106) 2018

I.N. DROGOBYTSKY
Doctor of Economics, Professor of the Department of 
System Analysis in Economics at the FGOBU VO “Financial 
University under the Government of the Russian Federation”. 
Research interests: system analysis in economics, economic and 
mathematical methods, knowledge economy
E-mail: dinind@mail.ru

BEHAVIORAL ECONOMICS: THE ESSENCE AND STAGES OF FORMATION

ABSTRACT:
At the turn of the millennia appeared, and in subsequent years, a 
conceptually new economic theory-the behavioral economy-was 
signifi cantly entrenched. As all new, it caused some suspicion 
and opposition of the scientifi c economic community. This article 
aims to at least somehow reduce the detrimental impact of these 
trends. It examines the origins, main actors and a long history of 
the development of the behavioral economy. At the same time, the 
essence of its main provisions is revealed, their transformation in 
time and prospects for practical application are analyzed.  

KEYWORDS: 
game, risk, subjective value of wealth, value function, loss rejection 
ratio, choice architecture.

A.V. TRACHUK
Doctor of Economics, Professor, Head of the Management 
Department, Research Supervisor of the Faculty of 
Management at the FGOBU VO “Financial University 
under the Government of the Russian Federation”, General 
Director of JSC “Goznak”. Research interests: strategy 
and management of company development, innovations, 
entrepreneurship and modern business models in the 
fi nancial and real sectors of economy, dynamics and 
development of e-business, operational experience and 
prospects for the development of natural monopolies.
E-mail: Trachuk_A_V@goznak.ru

N.V. LINDER
Ph.D. in Economics, Professor, First Deputy Head of the 
Management Department at the FGOBU VO “Financial 
University under the Government of the Russian 
Federation”. Research interests: strategy and management 
of company development, formation of a strategy for 
the development of industrial companies under the 
conditions of the fourth industrial revolution, innovation 
and transformation of business models, dynamics and 
development of e-business, strategies for developing 
energy companies under the conditions of the fourth 
industrial revolution, strategies for Russian companies to 
enter international markets.
E-mail: NVLinder@fa.ru

ABSTRACT:
The assessment of problems and prospects of application of 
technologies of the distributed generation is presented by the 
industrial companies. The concept of the distributed generation and 
structure of technologies included in it  is considered, sources of 
key competitive advantages of use of technologies of the distributed 
generation are revealed. For the analysis of the most signifi cant 
factors of perception of technologies of the distributed generation
theindustrialcompanieshaveconductedthedeepsemi-structuredinter
viewstorepresentativesof 8 large industrial companies, questioning 
of representatives of 69 industrial companies. For the analysis the 
regression model, allowing to determine force and the importance 
of infl uence of the selected factors on acceptance by the companies 
of the decision on own generation is used.
For the analysed companies possibility of technical connection, 
cost of the electric power and the apprehended advantages are 
critical factors of decision-making on use of technologies of the 
distributed generation. Risk factor has appeared we don’t mean. 
In deep interviews respondents explained it to that systems of the 
distributed generation minimize emergence of the listed adverse 
effects. Receiving cheap electric and thermal energy, gradual 
accumulation of power capacities, uniformity of capital investments 
with fast obtaining energy for production and economic needs is 
possible to day in connection with use of power effective decisions 
on the basis of technologies of the distributed generation. 

KEYWORDS:  
power industry,  distributed generation, new technologies, factors of 
acceptance of innovations, energy effi ciency

TECHNOLOGIES OF THE DISTRIBUTED GENERATION: 
EMPIRICAL EVALUATIONS OF  THE  INNOVATIONS ACCEPTANCE  

A.B. KURYATNIKOV
Ph.D. in Technical Sciences, Deputy 
General Director for Science and 
Development
JSC “Goznak”.
Research interests: research and 
development management, corporate 
innovation systems, innovative strategy of 
companies, creation and distribution of a 
new product
E-mail:Kuryatnikov_A_B@goznak.ru

L.S. ORLOVA 
Postgraduate student of the Management 
Department at the FGOBU VO “Financial 
University under the Government of the 
Russian Federation”. Research interests: 
strategic management, dissemination 
of innovations, innovative strategy 
of companies
E-mail: LSOrlova2017@edu.fa.ru

CLOUD SERVICES: INCENTIVES OF USERS TO ADAPTATION

ABSTRACT:

Information technologies infl uence a place and competitiveness of the companies 
on the international scene. Сloud technologies take root practically in all branches of 
economy both in state and in the private sphere the advanced information technologies. 
The essence of cloud technologies consists in granting to end users of remote dynamic 
access to services, computing resources and appendices (including operating systems 
and infrastructure) on the Internet. The purposes of this work are: the analysis of speed 
of distribution of cloudy technologies in the Russian Federation and the world; defi nition 
of drivers of development and distribution barriers in the Russian market; development 
prospects of cloud-based technology and proposing measures s for stimulating their 
development . 
Survey of representatives of the companies participating of the market of cloud 
services was conducted for the analysis of the factors infl uencing distribution of cloud 
services in Russia. The factors infl uencing the direction development prospects of cloudbased technology are defi ned by the factorial analysis of answers of respondents in the 
SPSS program. Based on the results of the survey, the forecasted values of the development 
of the cloud services market were made. The infrastructure, economic, marketing factors 
promoting advance of cloud services in the Russian market are revealed as a result of the 
conducted research. The factors interfering growth of the market of cloud technologies 
are legal, social and economic, technological and marketing. Tools were developed for 
stimulation of distribution of cloud services on the basis of the received results. On the 
basis of the obtained results, it can be concluded that in order to preserve sustainable 
development, it is expedient to specialize companies for the production of one type of 
products or in a particular industry. Also it is recommended to develop products for 
public sector, providers of cloud services only started mastering this sphere. If other 
information technologies are usually offered to customers through IT directors, then 
cloud products should be promoted by addressing directly to directors of companies or 
other representatives distributing the budget. 

KEY WORDS: 

cloudservices, 
cloudtechnologies, 
factoranalysis, 
technologyspreadrate, 
diffusionofi nnovation.

CONFIGURING THE PROJECT MANAGEMENT OFFICE: CASE OF AN INNOVATION 
INDUSTRIAL COMPANY

ABSTRACT:

Project management development in various industries and spheres of activity has caused a variety 
of forms and functions of project management offi ces. This has caused the need to develop an approach 
to the confi guration of the offi ce of a company. The research object – an innovative industrial company 
– predetermined the need to form a project management offi ce as a center of management consulting. 
The study was carried out on the basis of the case-study methodology, which combined the documents 
analysis, assessment of the project management maturity and survey methods.
It proposes and approves the approach to designing the project offi ce confi guration based on the 
assessment of the level of organizational and technological project management maturity. The in-depth 
study of the industrial innovation company made it possible to disclose the main components and 
connections in the system «innovation – project management (project offi ce) – consulting». As a result, 
the set of functions of the project management offi ce is determined, and in particular, the content of 
the consultancy function in the process of the current activity within the innovative industrial company 
(process consulting).

KEY WORDS: 

project, innovation project, project management, project management offi ce.

I.V. KATUNINA 
Doctor of Economics, 
assistant professor, Professor 
of the Department of 
Innovation and Project 
Management at the FGBOU 
VO “Omsk F.M. Dostoevsky 
State University”. 
Research interests: 
project management, 
change management and 
organizational development. 
Email: 
i.v.katunina@gmail.com

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рискcтратегические
менеджмент

  №1 (106) 2018

E.А. FEDOROVA 
Doctor of Economics, Professor of the Department of Corporate 
Finance and Corporate Management at the FGOBU VO 
“Financial University under the Government of the Russian 
Federation”. Research interests: economic and mathematical 
methods and models, fi nancial management, bankruptcy 
forecasting.
Е-mail: ecolena@mail.ru

L.E. KHRUSTOVA
Postgraduate student of the Department of Corporate Finance 
and Corporate Management at the FGOBU VO “Financial 
University under the Government of the Russian Federation”. 
Research interests: bankruptcy forecasting, fi nancial control, 
fi nancial management. 
Е-mail: khrustoval@yandex.ru

D.V. CHEKRIZOV 
Chief fi nancial analyst of JSC “GlobalTel”. Research interests: 
fi nancial management, bankruptcy forecasting. 
Е-mail: chekrizovdv@mail.ru

INDUSTRY CHARACTERISTICS OF BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION MODELS APPLIANCE

ABSTRACT:

The aim of the research is to develop the methodology of 
bankruptcy prediction applying the specifi ed statutory values 
of the existing models with a glance to company’s industry and 
developing the author’s prediction model. Initially authors estimated 
the forecast accuracy of the existing models for the enterprises of 
8 industries. Using CART (Classifi cation And Regression Tree) 
methodology the original statutory values of the models were 
specifi ed for every industry under research. The calculated statutory 
values demonstrated the high level of prediction accuracy and 
balanced the indicators of accuracy for bankrupt and non-bankrupt 
companies. The indicators with the maximum level of signifi cance 
for bankruptcy prediction were selected from all the models. They 
formed a basis for a new developed model, which has demonstrated 
the high level of prediction accuracy on a sample under research. 
The statutory values for the new model were also developed.Theim
plementationoftheresearch’sresultswillincreasetheeffi ciencyofbank
ruptcypredictionandlowthenumberofbankruptcompanies.

KEY WORDS: 

bankruptcy, bankruptcy prediction, prediction models, classical 
model, bankruptcy within industries

ELECTRICAL ENERGY DEMAND MANAGEMENT IN RUSSIA

ABSTRACT:

One of the modern and effective tools for energy effi ciency improvement at the level of national 
economies is management of the demand for electrical energy consumption. The mechanism 
of management of the demand for electrical energy consumption has a signifi cant potential for 
energy effi ciency improvement for the Russian economy, but due to structural features of the 
Unifi ed Energy System of Russia, the Electrical Energy Demand Management Program is at 
the stage of concept development. A model of management of the demand for electrical energy 
consumption for Unifi ed Energy System of Russia has been developed taking into account 
structural features of the electric power system. Peculiarities of the economic structure of Russia, 
which infl uence the formation of the structure of the country’s electric power complex, have been 
revealed. They were taken into account when developing requirements for the electrical energy 
demand management system in the Unifi ed Energy System of Russia. The basic features are 
the multilevel form and hierarchy of the structure; they have been investigated in the process of 
developing the demand management model. The classifi cation of electric power industry entities, 
related to processes of electric energy circulation and the infl uence on the management of the 
demand for electrical energy consumption, has been developed with economic interests of each 
entity within the framework of the demand management model. The electrical energy demand 
management model, which is based on the hierarchical structure of demand management, has 
been developed and covers the whole complex of management functions and takes into account 
features of demand management at each management level. The model allows to signifi cantly 
improve the effi ciency of management of the demand for electrical energy consumption, to 
ensure the quality of management.

КЛЮЧЕВЫЕ СЛОВА: 

energy effi ciency, electrical energy consumption, electric power industry in Russia, electric 
power industry entities in Russia, regional energy production, GDP power intensity, demand for 
electrical energy consumption, demand management, Unifi ed Energy System of Russia.

A.P. DZYUBA  
Ph.D. in Economics, 
Deputy General Director 
of LLC “MSK Energo”. 
Research interests: energy 
consumption management of 
industrial enterprises, demand 
management, price-dependent 
electrical energy consumption.
E-mail: dzyuba-a@yandex.ru. 

I.A. SOLOVEVA 
Ph.D. in Economics, assistant 
professor of the Department of 
Finance, Money Circulation and 
Credit of the Higher School of 
Economics and Management 
at the FGAOU VO “South 
Ural State University (National 
Research University)”. Research 
interests: energy consumption 
management of industrial 
enterprises, price-dependent 
electrical energy consumption, 
investment analysis and 
investment risk assessment. 
E-mail: Solovevaia@susu.ru.

G.G. NALBANDYAN
Postgraduate student of the 
Management Department, 
assistant at the FGOBU VO 
“Financial University under 
the Government of the Russian 
Federation”. Research interests: 
development strategies of 
industrial companies, entry into 
international markets, inter-fi rm 
cooperation, transformation of 
business models 
E-mail:GGNalbandyan@fa.ru

S. S. ZHOLNERCHIK
Ph.D. in Economics, assistant 
professor
Research interests: assessment 
of management decision 
making, economy and 
management of the electric 
power industry, effi ciency of 
energy companies
E-mail: 6479585@mail.ru

ABSTRACT:

The reduction in the cost of technologies for distributed generation involves an increasing decentralization of power generation and large-scale development of distributed sources around the 
world. This trend is a key change in both the characteristics of electricity consumption: it is becoming 
increasingly fl exible and mobile, and the patterns of consumer behavior in the electricity market. 
Electricity consumers are becoming at the same time its suppliers and require revision of traditional 
regulation standards of the electricity market. 
The purpose of the article is to assess the infl uence of distributed generation on the economy of 
both enterprises and the country as a whole. To identify the effects of the introduction of distributed 
generation technologies, the method of case study analysis is used. The empirical analysis was carried out on the basis of twelve Russian companies that use their own energy sources. The selected 
companies belong to the following industries: industrial production, housing and communal services, 
retail trade, construction, agriculture.  Technological and economic effects are revealed. Technological 
ones include: improving consumer reliability, energy security, involving local energy resources, optimizing load management and redundancy, providing the fl exibility of smart grids (in terms of generation), 
reducing the load on the environment, including CO2 emissions. Economic effects: optimization of the 
load schedule, reduction of losses in the process of transmission/distribution of energy, expansion of cogeneration, etc., providing the consumer with the electricity of a given quality, saving losses in networks, 
reducing the cost of energy.  The identifi ed effects of the introduction of distributed generation technologies make it possible to highlight the advantages of regeneration facilities: high effi ciency and 
the possibility of cogeneration and trigeneration, individual maneuvering capacity loading, high reliability of equipment, low cost of transportation of electricity, fuel usage of the by-products and the 
main production waste. In conclusion, recommendations are formulated on a set of measures for the 
development of industrial distributed generation in Russia at the Federal level.

KEYWORDS: 

power industry, distributed generation, energy effi ciency, decentralized power industry, cogeneration, trigeneration

TECHNOLOGIES FOR DISTRIBUTED GENERATION: 
KEY PERFORMANCE FACTORS FOR INDUSTRIAL APPLICATION

A.B. MANVELIDZE
Ph.D. in Economics, 
assistant professor 
of the Department of 
Financial Management 
at the FGOBU VO 
“Stankin Moscow 
State Technological 
University”. Research 
interests: air transport 
economics 
Е-mail: 
a.b.manvelidze@
gmail.com

COMPARISON ANALYSIS OF PASSENGER TRAFFIC BY AIR AND RAIL TRANSPORT

ABSTRACT:

The article analyses passenger traffi c distribution between air transport on domestic air routes and railway 
transport on the routes of large distances within the Russian Federation. The research objective is to defi ne 
the air traffi c increase potential especially on the distances up to 2500 km. City-pairs air passenger traffi c and 
railway passenger traffi c between the destination points statistics for 2014 and 2016, distances between the 
points of destination and actual economy class air fares and railway compartment carriage tariffs as well data 
on airports state in corresponding points of destination are used as original information.
Pivot tables of traffi c on 5 thousand routes by both modes of transport are drawn up.
Specifi c traffi c shares by air transport between points of origin (taking off) and destination (landing) are 
defi ned. Passenger traffi c distribution is evaluated by distance intervals in Russian Federation as a whole and 
from major airports : Moscow, Ekaterinburg, Sochi and Simferopol. The analysis defi nes the trend of traffi c 
share increase by air transport along with rising traffi c distances. 
The research reveals that 94,2% of passenger traffi c by rail and 83% of traffi c by air are carried for the 
distances up to 2 500 km. 
The statistics example of passenger traffi c from Moscow and Ekaterinburg demonstrates that regional 
routes with distances up to 1000 km are the main increase potential for the traffi c growth. In 2016 traffi c share 
by air transport for the distances interval up to 1000 km was 16%.
According to the tariffs analysis the conclusion is made that air fares exceed rail tariffs on fl ight distances 
up to 1000 km (because of the short distances fl ight speculiarities) and on the routes to hard-to-reach and 
remote areas. Passengers choice in favor of air transport on regional routes depends on creation of economic 
conditions to attract more passengers.

KEY WORDS: 

passenger traffi c, air transport, domestic air lines, railway transport, city-pairs, point of destination, distances, tariff, distribution, air transport share, regional traffi c, increase potential.

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  №1 (106) 2018

Е.А. DEMYANOVA 
fi nancial expert, 
MBA, applicant for 
Ph.D. in Economics 
of the Department of 
Corporate Finance and 
Corporate Management 
at the FGOBU VO 
“Financial University 
under the Government 
of the Russian 
Federation”. Research 
interests: evaluation 
of business, intangible 
assets, fi ntech.
 EADemyanova@ya.ru

ABSTRACT:

The purpose of the current study was to form theoretical issues and practical recommendations on 
development of methodology evaluation for companies implementing modern fi nancial technologies. 
The research was conducted based on methodology of systematic research, synthesis, abstract logic and 
scientifi c forecast, statistical methods and factor analysis methods, expert evaluation, real option method, 
explored fuzzy logic.   Research resulted in discovery of such companies’ features  that implement modern 
fi nancial technology as evaluation objects, as well as exogenous and endogenous factors that impact the 
evaluation of the researched companies,  and these factors’ classifi cation offered; there were methodological 
recommendations developed on qualitative and quantitative ranking of specifi c indeterminacy; there 
were adaptations performed to discounted cash fl ows, real options, and ratio methods. The methodology 
developed was approbated based on domestic and foreign companies that provide consulting and evaluations 
services. As a result of its usage, a more precise evaluation was provided for the companies implementing 
modern fi nancial technologies. A separate practical usage regarded the adopted method of discounting rate 
calculation based on the correction for specifi c fi ntech implementation risks and the developed mechanism of 
real options usage for additional company’s value that allows receiving a more accurate evaluation numbers. 
The classifi cation manual of specifi c risks developed by the author is used by evaluation practitioners. The 
scientifi c issues and practical recommendations on improvement of the companies’ evaluation that were 
developed within the study are being used for teaching of “Evaluation and business value management” 
course in Financial University.

KEY WORDS: 

fi ntech, evaluation, risks, evaluation methodology, real options, ratios, discounting rate. 

CURRENT ISSUES OF COMPANY EVALUATION UNDER FINTECH

Е.А. ARSENOVA 
Ph.D. in Economics, 
Professor of the Management 
Department, Dean of the 
Faculty of Management at 
the FGOBU VO “Financial 
University under the 
Government of the Russian 
Federation”. Research interests: 
innovation management and 
entrepreneurship, e-business.
E-mail: Earsenova@fa.ru

T.YU. NIKOLAEVA 
Project Manager of 
the company “Nestle 
Russia”, Master’s Degree 
Student of the Program 
“Innovation Management 
and Entrepreneurship” of the 
Management Department at 
the FGOBU VO “Financial 
University under the 
Government of the Russian 
Federation”. Research interests: 
innovation management and 
entrepreneurship.
E-mail: 
tanyanikolaeva23@gmail.com

ABSTRACT:

In paper effi ciency of introduction of system of economical production in processes of creation 
and development of innovative products on “Nestle”- Russia is considered. Features of introduction 
of system of economical production are defi ned by features of work of the company in FMCG sphere. 
Research is focused on identifi cation of the least effective processes of development of innovative 
products. Research is conducted in two stages: on the fi rst questioning in which more than 200 experts 
in the fi eld of development and start of innovative products of the companies which working in 
sector of FMCG and have got to selection took part is carried out: «Нестле Россия», Mars, Danone, 
Unilever, Ferrero, RB, P&G, Froneri, L’oreal, Colgate, Pepsico, Coca-Cola, Multon. Questioning 
is carried out among specialists of the above-named companies from all functional divisions which 
are taking part in development and start of novelties: marketing, fi nance, planning, purchases of raw 
materials and materials, applied groups of factories, marketing communications, project managers; at 
the second stage deep interviews to experts in the fi eld in the “Nestle Russia” company that allowed 
to understand better than the reason of low effi ciency of separate stages of process of development 
and start of innovations are conducted. As a result of research a number of the factors having the 
strongest impact on effi ciency of processes of development of new products and planning of sales 
is revealed: absence of standards, incorrect timing, confusion and poor quality of comments after 
tastings, absence of understanding of target cost of a compounding. On the basis of the conducted 
research the standard, allowing to systematize earlier unformalized process is offered, to defi ne key 
development stages of a compounding of new products and their sequence. The practical value of 
the developed standard consists in: the accounting of classifi cation of projects on three categories 
depending on type of raw materials, the equipment and investments; to development of timing of the 
project according to the chosen category taking into account the terms coordinated in the standard and 
features for each category of projects; introduction of internal tests of consumer preferences at factory 
for minimization of expenses and decrease in risks of loss in the large-scale consumer tests which are 
carried out by third-party agencies, a preliminary estimate of cost of a compounding applied group of 
factory when developing samples. 

KEYWORDS: 

innovations, development of new products, economical production, FMCG sector, competitiveness, 
industrial enterprise

INFLUENCE OF INTRODUCTION OF SYSTEM OF ECONOMICAL PRODUCTION ON 
PROCESSES OF CREATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF AN INNOVATIVE PRODUCT: COMPANY 
EXAMPLE «NESTLÉ RUSSIA»