Модели и алгоритмы реконструкции и экспертизы аварийных событий дорожно-транспортных происшествий на базе логического искусственного интеллекта

МОДЕЛИ И АЛГОРИТМЫ 
РЕКОНСТРУКЦИИ И ЭКСПЕРТИЗЫ 
АВАРИЙНЫХ СОБЫТИЙ 
ДОРОЖНО-ТРАНСПОРТНЫХ 
ПРОИСШЕСТВИЙ 
НА БАЗЕ ЛОГИЧЕСКОГО 
ИСКУССТВЕННОГО ИНТЕЛЛЕКТА

Д.А. ЧУВИКОВ

МОНОГРАФИЯ

Москва
ИНФРА-М
2020

УДК [656.08+004.8](075.4)
ББК 39.3:32.813
 
Ч82

Чувиков Д.А.
Ч82  
Модели и алгоритмы реконструкции и экспертизы аварийных 
событий дорожно-транспортных происшествий на базе логического 
искусственного интеллекта : монография / Д.А. Чувиков. — Москва : 
ИНФРА-М, 2020. — 305 с. — DOI 10.12737/1220729.

ISBN 978-5-16-016711-4 (print)
ISBN 978-5-16-109298-9 (online)
Цель монографии — создание методики, объединенных экспертных и имитационных моделей, а также алгоритмов и программно-моделирующих средств реконструкции и экспертизы аварийных событий ДТП для автоматизации принятия решений сотрудником экспертного центра. 
Разработаны методика объединения и алгоритмы совместной работы экспертной системы, построенной на базе логического искусственного интеллекта (миварного подхода), и системы имитационного моделирования в целях решения задач 
реконструкции и экспертизы ДТП; модели реконструкции и экспертизы ДТП в формализме базы знаний двудольных ориентированных миварных сетей, включающие 
формулы анализа тормозных качеств автомобиля, определения скоростных показателей автомобиля в условиях конкретной ДТС, формулы расчета различных случаев: скольжения автомобиля при торможении, движении автомобиля на криволинейных участках дороги, наезда автомобиля на пешехода при равномерном движении 
и неограниченной видимости; методика генерации интерфейсов для конструктора 
экспертных систем, основанного на концепции миварного подхода; специальное математическое обеспечение в виде экспертной системы «Анализ ДТП», позволившее 
снизить трудоемкость процесса расчета спорных ДТП, возникновение ошибок при 
расчете и повысить достоверность и объективность полученных результатов, а также 
скорость и качество самих расчетов.
Может быть полезна специалистам экспертных учреждений, страховых компаний, образовательных учреждений в области экспертизы, а также беспилотного автотранспорта в части объективного анализа и экспертизы ДТП. 

УДК [656.08+004.8](075.4)
ББК 39.3:32.813

Р е ц е н з е н т ы:
Варламов О.О., доктор технических наук, профессор кафедры ИУ-5 
«Системы обработки информации и управления» Московского государственного технического университета имени Н.Э. Баумана (национального исследовательского университета), директор ООО «НИИ МИВАР»;
Остроух А.В., доктор технических наук, профессор кафедры «Автоматизированные системы управления» Московского автомобильно-дорожного государственного технического университета (МАДИ), действительный член Российской академии естествознания

ISBN 978-5-16-016711-4 (print)
ISBN 978-5-16-109298-9 (online)
© Чувиков Д.А., 2020

MODELS AND ALGORITHMS 
OF RECONSTRUCTION 
AND EXAMINATION OF EMERGENCY 
EVENTS OF ROAD ACCIDENTS 
BASED ON LOGIC 
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

D.A. CHUVIKOV

MONOGRAPH

Moscow 
INFRA-M
2020

Chuvikov D.A.
 
 
Models and algorithms of reconstruction and examination of emergency events of road accidents based on logic artifi cial intelligence : 
monograph / D.A. Chuvikov. — Moscow : INFRA-M, 2020. — 305 p. — 
DOI 10.12737/1220729.

ISBN 978-5-16-016711-4 (print)
ISBN 978-5-16-109298-9 (online)
The purpose of this monograph is to create a methodology combining expert 
and simulation models, as well as algorithms and software-modeling tools, for the reconstruction and examination of emergency road accident events and for automating decisionmaking by an expert-centre employee.
The following results were obtained from the research: a method for combining 
an expert system, based on logical artifi cial intelligence (Mivar-based approach) and 
a simulation system for solving problems of reconstruction and examination of emergency 
events of road accidents were developed; algorithms for the joint work of an expert system 
based on logical artifi cial intelligence (Mivar-based approach) and simulation systems 
were developed; models of reconstruction and examination of emergency events of road 
accidents were developed in the formalism of the knowledge-base of bipartite-oriented 
Mivar networks, which include the analysis of formulas for the braking qualities of the 
vehicle, determining the speed characteristics of the vehicle in a specifi c road transport 
situation, calculating formulas for various cases: vehicle slippage during braking, driving 
along curved sections of the road, hitting a pedestrian with uniform traffi  c and unlimited 
visibility; a method for generating interfaces for the design of expert systems, based 
on the concept of the Mivar-based approach, was developed; a special software in the 
form of expert systems «Analysis MVA» (Motor Vehicle Accidents) in order to reduce 
the complexity of the process of calculating the disputed traffi  c accidents, reduce the 
occurrence of errors in the calculation, increase the accuracy and objectivity of obtained 
results, reduce the requirements for the qualifi cation of experts and also en-hance the 
speed and quality of calculations. 
The results presented in the monograph could prove useful to: specialists in the fi eld of 
expert institutions, insurance companies, educational institutions in the fi eld of expertise, 
as well as in the objective analysis and examination of road accidents involving unmanned 
vehicles.

R e v i e w e r s :
Varlamov O.O., doсtor of technical sciences, professor of the department of 
IU-5 «Automatic Information Processing and Control Systems» of Bauman 
Moscow State Technical University, director of the RI MIVAR;
Ostroukh A.V., doсtor of technical sciences, professor of the department of 
automated control systems of Moscow Automobile and Road Construction 
State Technical University (MADI), full member of the Russian Academy of 
Natural History

ISBN 978-5-16-016711-4 (print)
ISBN 978-5-16-109298-9 (online)
© Chuvikov D.A., 2020

...................................................................... 14...................................................................................................... 151. -......... 191.1. ..................................................... 191.1.1. ................................................... 191.1.1.1. ................................... 191.1.1.2. ................................................ 231.1.1.3. ....................... 251.1.1.4. ....... 261.1.2. .............................................. 271.1.2.1. .................................. 281.1.2.2. ................... 321.1.2.3. ................................................................................... 351.1.2.4. ...... 361.2. .. 361.2.1. .................................................. 371.2.2. ............................................... 391.2.3. , 
....................... 391.2.4. , ...................................................................... 401.2.5. ..................................................................................................... 401.2.6. 
....................................................................... 431.2.7. ,  
.............................................................................. 441.3. ....................................................................... 462. -..... 482.1. ....................................................... 48

2.2. () ..................................................................................................... 482.3. .................................................. 522.4. ................................................... 552.5. ............................................ 562.5.1. ........ 562.5.2. 
..................................................................................................... 572.5.3. ........................................................................... 592.6. .......................................... 602.6.1. 
..................................... 612.6.2. -................. 622.6.3. ......... 652.7. ....................... 662.8. ................................................. 672.9. ............................. 682.10. ................. 692.11. ...................................................................... 703. , 
...................................................... 723.1. .................................................... 723.2. :  «» ........................................................................................... 723.2.1. «
» ................................................................................................... 733.2.2. 
«» ................................................................................... 743.2.3. «» ................ 763.2.4. ,  
Wi!Mi 2.1 ........................................................................ 813.2.5. «» ................................................. 85

3.2.6. «» ............ 873.2.6.1. ............................ 883.2.6.2. ............................................... 883.2.6.3. 
............................................................................ 893.2.6.4. ...................................................................................... 893.2.6.5.  
............................................... 903.3. «
» ........................................................................................................... 913.4. 
«» ................................................. 933.5. «»..................................................................................... 953.6. ...................................................................... 964. ...... 984.1. ................................................ 984.2. 1: Toyota Carib Lexus RX ........................ 994.3. 2: Volkswagen Polo LADA  
() 2114 ............................................................................................... 1064.4. 3: Hyundai Accent Suzuki SX4 .............. 1144.5. 4: Citroen C6, ............ 1234.6. 5: Toyota Yaris, ......... 1324.7. ................................................................ 141............................................................................................ 143..................................................... 1451 ..................................................................................... 1672 ..................................................................................... 242.2.1. 1: 
.............................................................................................................. 242.2.2. 2: ....... 248

.2.3. 3: 
........................................................................................................... 253.2.4. 4: 
................................................................... 258.2.5. 5: .............................................................................................. 262.2.6. 6: 
.................................... 266.2.7. 7: 
............................... 271.2.8. 8: ................................................................ 275.2.9. 9: 
..................................................................... 277.2.10. 10: ................................................. 280.2.11. 11: ............. 283.2.12. 12: 
, ....................................................... 285.2.13. 13: .......................................................... 288.2.14. 14: 
......................................................... 293.2.15. 15: 
........................................................................ 300 
 

CONTENTS 

LISTS OF ABBREVIATIONS ....................................................................... 14INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................ 15CHAPTER 1. REVIEW AND ANALYTICAL RESEARCH ..................... 191.1. Statement of the problem discussed in the First Chapter .................... 191.1.1. Expert modeling ........................................................................ 191.1.1.1. Retrospective analysis of the expert systems ............. 191.1.1.2. General structure of the expert system ....................... 231.1.1.3. Requirements for developed to the expert systems .... 251.1.1.4. Advantages and disadvantages of using to the expert 
systems ..................................................................................... 261.1.2. Simulation modeling ................................................................. 271.1.2.1. Retrospective analysis of the simulation modeling .... 281.1.2.2. Varieties and tools of the simulation modeling .......... 321.1.2.3. The requirements for developing simulation  
models ...................................................................................... 351.1.2.4. Advantages and disadvantages of using the simulation 
modeling .................................................................................. 361.2. Research of the subject area of analysis and examination of road  
accidents ...................................................................................................... 361.2.1. Autotechnical expertise ............................................................. 371.2.2. Road accident investigation procedure ..................................... 391.2.3. The main questions that an expert answers in a forensic 
independent examination after road accident ..................................... 39 
1.2.4. The main problems faced by an employee of the Forensic 
Center in the analysis of road accidents .............................................. 40 
1.2.5. Research of existing systems of simulation modeling  
for reconstruction of road accidents .................................................... 401.2.6. Research environments for the development of expert systems 
in various subject areas ....................................................................... 431.2.7. Analysis of scientific works on the reconstruction  
and examination of road accidents ...................................................... 441.3. Conclusions of the First Chapter ......................................................... 46

CHAPTER 2. SYSTEM RESEARCH OF INTERACTION OF EXPERT 
SYSTEM AND SIMULATION SYSTEM  IN SOLVING THE PROBLEM 
OF EXAMINATION OF EMERGENCY EVENTS OF ROAD 
ACCIDENTS ..................................................................................................... 482.1. Statement of the problems discussed in the Second Chapter .............. 482.2. The concept of Logical Artificial Intelligence (Mivar-based  
approach) ..................................................................................................... 482.3. Methodology of combining expert system and simulation system ..... 522.4. Approaches to combining expert system and simulation system ........ 552.5. Methods of interaction between expert system and simulation  
system ......................................................................................................... 562.5.1. Data transfer between expert system and simulation system via 
one data transfer service ...................................................................... 562.5.2. Data transfer between expert system and simulation system via 
several data transfer services ............................................................... 572.5.3. Data transfer between user and software package of the expert 
simulation system ................................................................................ 592.6. Algorithms of interaction between expert system and simulation 
system ......................................................................................................... 602.6.1. The sequential algorithm of the interaction between expert  
system and simulation system with taking into account the choice  
of the dominant system ....................................................................... 612.6.2. The sequential-parallel algorithm of the interaction between  
expert system and simulation system with taking into account  
the choice of the dominant system ...................................................... 622.6.3. The parallel algorithm of the interaction between expert system 
and simulation system ......................................................................... 652.7. Methods of transferring information between expert system  
and simulation system ................................................................................. 662.8. Models of compatibility of expert system and simulation system ...... 672.9. Algorithm for checking the compatibility of expert system  
and simulation system ................................................................................. 68 
2.10. Versatility of the method of combining an expert system  
and a simulation system .............................................................................. 692.11. Conclusions of the Second Chapter ................................................... 70

CHAPTER 3. DEVELOPMENT OF MODELS, ALGORITHMS  
AND SPECIAL MATHEMATICAL SOFTWARE FOR THE ANALYSIS 
AND EXPERTISE OF ROAD ACCIDENTS ............................................... 723.1. Statement of the problem discussed in the Third Chapter .................. 723.2. Development of special mathematical software: expert system 
"Analysis MVA" (Motor Vehicle Accident) .............................................. 723.2.1. Formalization of knowledge for the prototype of the expert 
system "Analysis MVA" (Motor Vehicle Accident) .......................... 733.2.2. Development of a global model of the knowledge base  
of the expert system "Analysis MVA" (Motor Vehicle Accident) ..... 743.2.3. The structure of the algorithm of the expert system "Analysis 
MVA" (Motor Vehicle Accident) ....................................................... 76 
3.2.4. Methodology for generating interfaces for expert systems 
created on KESMI Wi!Mi 2.1 ............................................................. 81 
3.2.5. Description of the expert system "Analysis MVA" (Motor 
Vehicle Accident) ................................................................................ 853.2.6. Correctness verification of the expert system "Analysis MVA" 
(Motor Vehicle Accident) ................................................................... 87 
3.2.6.1. The braking qualities of the vehicle ........................... 88 
3.2.6.2. The vehicle speed ....................................................... 88 
3.2.6.3. The cases of slip of the vehicle during braking .......... 89 
3.2.6.4. The movement of the vehicle on curved sections  
of the road ................................................................................ 89 
3.2.6.5. Hitting a pedestrian with uniform traffic and unlimited 
visibility ................................................................................... 90 
3.3. Optimality justification of the expert system "Analysis MVA" (Motor 
Vehicle Accident) ....................................................................................... 913.4. Efficiency of reducing the number of errors in calculations when using 
the expert system "Analysis MVA" (Motor Vehicle Accident) ................. 93 
3.5. Efficiency of reducing time costs when using the expert system 
"Analysis MVA" (Motor Vehicle Accident) .............................................. 953.6. Conclusions of the Third Chapter ........................................................ 96 

CHAPTER 4. RESULTS OF EXPERIMENTAL RESEARCHES  
OF INTERACTION BETWEEN THE EXPERT SYSTEM  
AND THE SIMULATION SYSTEM ON THE EXAMPLE OF SOLVING 
PROBLEMS OF INVESTIGATION AND EXAMINATION OF ROAD 
ACCIDENTS ..................................................................................................... 984.1. Statement of the problem discussed in the Fourth Chapter ................. 984.2. Accident #1: Toyota Carib and Lexus RX road accident .................... 994.3. Accident #2: Volkswagen Polo and LADA (VAZ) 2114 road  
accident ..................................................................................................... 106 
4.4. Accident #3: Hyundai Accent and Suzuki SX4 road accident .......... 114 
4.5. Accident #4: Citroen C6 road accident, hitting a pedestrian ............. 123 
4.6. Accident #5: Toyota Yaris road accident, hitting a pedestrian ......... 132 
4.7. Conclusions of the Fourth Chapter .................................................... 141CONCLUSION ............................................................................................... 143REFERENCES ............................................................................................... 145APPENDIX #1 ................................................................................................ 167APPENDIX #2 ................................................................................................ 242A.2.1. Task #1: Determination of the safe distance of a cargo vehicle .... 242 
A.2.2. Task #2: Determination of the vehicle braking distance ............... 248 
A.2.3. Task #3: Determination of the possibility of preventing a road traffic 
accident ..................................................................................................... 253 
A.2.4. Task #4: Determination of the speed of the vehicle before braking 
when driving on a slope ............................................................................ 258 
A.2.5. Task #5: Determination of the additional speed of the vehicle  
at the beginning of braking ....................................................................... 262 
A.2.6. Task #6: Establishing the fact of violation of traffic rules  
on the speed limit in the city ..................................................................... 266 
A.2.7. Task #7: Establishing the fact of violation of traffic rules  
on the speed limit outside the city ............................................................ 271 
A.2.8. Task #8: Determination of the coefficient of adhesion  
of the roadway surface to the tires of the vehicle ..................................... 275 
A.2.9. Task #9: Determination of the speed of the vehicle before braking 
when hitting an obstacle ........................................................................... 277 
A.2.10. Task # 10: Determination of the maximum speed of a vehicle  
on a curved section of the road ................................................................. 280 

A.2.11. Task #11: Determination of the coefficient of adhesion  
of the surface on a curved road section without a transverse slope ......... 283 
A.2.12. Task #12: Determination of the critical overturning speed  
of the equipped vehicle ............................................................................. 285 
A.2.13. Task #13: Determination of the technical capability of the driver  
to avoid hitting a pedestrian ...................................................................... 288 
A.2.14. Task #14: Determination of the conditions for the safe crossing  
of the vehicle lane by a pedestrian ............................................................ 293 
A.2.15. Task #15: Determination of the driver's ability to prevent a road  
accident ..................................................................................................... 300 

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