ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IN THE TECHNOLOGIES SYNTHESIS OF CREATIVE SOLUTIONS


                ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE




IN THE TECHNOLOGIES SYNTHESIS OF CREATIVE SOLUTIONS

ALEXANDER V. ANDREICHIKOV
OLGA N. ANDREICHIKOVA




ACADEMUS
    Publishing

Academus Publishing
2018

ACADEMUS
    Publishing

Academus Publishing, Inc.



1999 S, Bascom Avenue, Suite 700 Campbell CA 95008 Website: www.academuspublishing.com E-mail: info@academuspublishing.com

The work was carried out with the financial support of the Russian Foundation for basic research and Russian Humanitarian Science Foundation, project No. 16—02—00743 «Multicriterial analysis and forecasting of technical and economic conditions and development trends of the world’s leading aerospace companies Contents



© Publisher, Academus Publishing, Inc., 2018

The right of Alexander V. Andreichikov, Olga N. Andreichikova is identified as author of this work.



ISBN 10: 1 4946 0010 5
ISBN 13: 978 1 4946 0010 5
DOI 10.31519/1404



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Abstract: Invention problem solving is connected to essential expenses of labour and time, which is spent on the procedures of search and ordering of necessary knowledge, on generation of probable variants of projected systems, on the analysis of offered ideas and decisions and understanding perspectiveness of them. The monograph present outlines the results of the developments in the field of creating computing technology of the synthesis of new engineering on the level of invention. The most attention is paid to problem of computer aided designing on initial stages, where synthesis of new on principal technical systems is carried out. Computer-aided construction of new technical system is based on using of data — and knowledge bases of physical effects and of technical decisions as well as different heuristic systematization procedures. The synthesis of principles of function of the technical new systems is carried out with using experts knowledge and requires the application of the artificial intelligence methods and the methods of the decisions making theory for invention's tasks. Considered approach has been used for synthesis of new technical systems of different functional purposes and had shown high efficiency in computer-aided construction.

Key words: artificialintelligence invention, creative solutions, database, knowledge base, knowledge systematization, decisions making, morphological synthesis, hierarchy analysis, fuzzy sets, invention software.

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            CONTENTS


CHAPTER 1.      Theory of Invention Problem-solving a creative process of developing new Technical Systems..........................5
   1.1. Software for the inventive problem solving...................5
   1.2. Application of the AHP/ANP to invention problems............27
   1.3. An Intelligent System for the Evolutionary Synthesis of Compound Objects....................................37
   1.4. DSS for a collaborative decision-making with considering of mutual requirements of the choice subjects....................60
   1.5. International patent resources in the study of innovative technologies (at the example of GLONASS/GpS).....................70
   1.6. Making decisions on substitution of imported equipment based on the analysis of patent and financial information........90
CHAPTER 2.      New paradigms of decision-making...................111
   2.1. New approaches to decision making..........................112
   2.2. The analysis of technical systems’ evolution...............117
   2.3. A choice of a perspective system for vibration isolation in conditions of varying environment............................124
   2.4  Expert Preferences Varying in Time.........................128
   2.5 About some features of AHP/ANP applications.................132
CHAPTER 3.      Intelligent System for Strategic Decisions ........194
   3.1. Methods.....................................................194
   3.2. Software implementation of DSS..............................203

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   CHAPTER 1.


            Theory of Invention Problem-solving a creative process of developing new Technical Systems


        1.1. Software for the inventive problem solving

   Introduction.In the Theory of Invention Problem-solving a creative process of developing new Technical Systems (TS) may be characterised by the following basic stages, on which specialised processing of information is carried out: • Preliminary statement of a problem, when the basic functions of the designed TS are formulated.
•  Study and analysis of a problem. There is the study of the evolution and tendencies of development of the considered class of TS and classes which are functionally similar to it.
•  Specification and elaboration of a problem. In the list of the requirements presented to the created TS, are joined operational, constructive, technological, economic, ecological and other requirements.
•  Search for new technical ideas, decisions and physical principles of action. At this stage synthesis of an extended set of new technical and physical principles of action is realised.
•  Choice of the best technical decisions. The versatile analysis and estimation of all found technical decisions is made for this purpose.
   The most important procedures of information processing during the invention of new products are: knowledge systematization and classification; synthesis of the new technical decisions; the analysis and forecasting of rational decisions in conditions of uncertainty.
   There are many scientific works devoted to decision regarding urgent problems of invention. The significant contribution in formation and development of invention methodology has been made by Hubka [1], Koller [2], Altshuller [3] and others [4-7]. Computer methods for invention support have received wide dissemination in the last two decades. For computer support of invention processes, optimisation methods, automatic methods for synthesis of TS, formal heuristic rules and algorithms of invention problem-solving [8]; automation of search designing [9-11] were used.
   This article discusses a practical approach to computer support of invention processes, which in contrast to existing approaches allows:

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•   The achievement of complex automation of a large number of invention procedures;
•   The inclusion of new methods and procedures for information processing;
•   The use the approaches and methods of artificial intelligence (AI);
•   The development of the methodology of creation and employment of the applications for invention problem-solving.
    The main parts of inventions software are:
•   Decision Support Systems (DSS);
•   Software for knowledge extraction and systematization;
•   Computer systems for the synthesis of the inventions.
    Computer support allows for considerable reduction in expenditures for labour and time in routine design procedures. It also increases the probability of dawning upon designer during creation of the inventions.
    Decision making tasks, techniques and systems Decision making tasks (DMT) may be divided into the following categories:
•   Tasks relating to conditions of certainty, that is when the total and exact information about a problem is present. In this case it satisfies conditions necessary for the statement of an optimisation problem.
•   Tasks relating to conditions of uncertainty, when the information is partial, inexact, incardinal, unreliable, illegible and so on. To solve such problems expert information is usually required and operations research methods, the methods of fuzzy sets theory and AI methods are applied. The approach to decisions making with the propositions of AI is considerably different from a mathematical one. Expert systems also ensure the support of choosing processes, but a strategy of problem-solving is different. The knowledge of experts are already incorporated in expert systems before their use.
    DMT are differentiated in their degree of environmental influence. For example, there are tasks which slightly influence environmental parameters and there are examples to the contrary. Environmental changes can have various forms (smooth, sharp, qualitative and so on) as well as timed parameters. In accordance with this there are static and dynamic DMT. Invention problemsolving deals with dynamic decision-making processes in conditions of uncertainty. To dynamic DMT is related the problems of initial information being unstable in time. For such a task the following instabilities are typical:
•   A change in the structure and properties of alternatives;
•   A change in the set of choice criteria and their priorities;
•   A change in the set of acceptable outcomes.

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    In dynamic DMT all categories of the initial information are subject to changes, as the changes in expert preferences reflect the tendencies of fluctuations occurring in the environment. These tendencies can be estimated on the basis of accrued statistics. Therefore the dynamic tasks in conditions of uncertainty require attraction, accumulation and multialternate processing of large volumes of expert information. Such information can be used for forecasting changes in considered variants preferences, an estimation of probable consequences of the accepted decisions and reception of new knowledge in areas researched.
    In connection with the above, there is the urgent problem of development of such computer systems for decision-making, which satisfy the following common requirements:
•  To provide the qualified support for the decision-making process on the adviser level, thus the task should be decided not by the system, but by the user;
•  The support of decision-making processes should be multiform, i.e. the system grants to the user the set of various strategies and methods for making decisions;
•  The system should have definite knowledge, necessary for decisions retaining to the presented task;
•  The system should strive towards perfection, i.e. it should be able to supplement new knowledge, to accumulate them and integrate it into the problem-solving process;
•  The system should be able to work with partial and indefinite information;
•  The system should remain in working state in conditions of a rapidly varying environment;
•  The system should be able to evaluate the consequences of decisions.
•  The user of the system is an engineer or inventor, who should not need to have qualifications of an expert, knowledge-engineer and mathematician.
    Most of these requirements are in accord with characteristics of second generation expert systems. The alternate approach is the concept of hybrid intelligent systems [12, 13], based on the connection of mathematical simulation methods with AI methods in frameworks of united systems. Such a connection is fruitful, both from the point of view of simulation and from the point of view of logical reasoning. On the one hand simulation methods can, to a certain degree, handle poorly structured and poorly formalised information in the

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knowledge base, and, on the other hand, adding simulation components to expert systems expands the opportunities for representing and processing diverse knowledge. Apart from the difficulties, connected with the embodiment of such system, there are the principle difficulties of organisation, connected with conventional contradictions between system generality and its skill in aiding tasks in particular subject areas. The knowledge in such systems is heterogeneous and dynamic; therefore, the questions of its representation, processing and converting require theoretical and experimental study. In addition such systems must be applied to real life applications in order to acquire well referenced practical experience.
    The DSS described incorporates two basic methods: the analysis of hierarchical processes [14] and the methods of fuzzy sets theory [15-17].

    Hierarchy analysis method

    The hierarchy analysis method supposes decomposition of a problem into simpler parts and processing of judgements of the accepting decision person. As a result, a vector of priorities of researched alternatives on all quality criteria, existing in the hierarchies, is defined. For estimation of hierarchy elements a pair comparisons technique is used, including a method of linguistic standards etc. By the use of pair comparisons an ordering of objects is carried out on the basis of calculating the right eigen vectors of pair comparisons matrixes, which is interpreted as a vector of priorities of compared alternatives. The main eigen vector w of a matrix Amight be found from the equation:
Aw Amax w,                               ⁽¹.¹⁾
where Amax — maximum eigen value of a matrix A. The components of priority vectors on quality criteria are hereafter used as weight factors in a procedure of linear convolution on criteria hierarchy, the result of which is a priorities vector of alternatives concerning focus.
    The hierarchy analysis method may be used for solving dynamic tasks. Forecasting experts’ preferences is connected to reception of priority estimations of alternatives in the form of dependencies in time. Hence, the preference estimation may be given not by a constant, but by a function. The selection of such functions can be carried out alternatively:
    -  an expert selects the function from some functional scale [14];
    -     the function is formed by an approximation of expert estimations, which have been received in various moment of time.

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    The example of a functional scale is shown in Table 1, where the functions contain parameters, the selection of which allows for the description of varied judgements.
    For dynamic tasks the pair comparisons matrixes contain functions of time as elements, therefore their maximum eigen values /.„-ax and eigen vectorw will also depend on time, i.e.
A(t)W (t) = hmax(t) W (t).                  (1.2)
For equation (1.2) it is possible to obtain the analytical solution, if the order of a matrix A(t) does not exceed four [14]. The priorities vector W(t) may be calculated by solving the equation (1.2) for various moments of time with the subsequent approximation of obtained points. Such an approach allows the removal of the restriction on the order of a matrix A(t) and allows to watch for consistency of experts’ judgements in time. An alternate way is calculation of A(t) and W(t) numerically. For this purpose it is necessary to have information on experts’ preferences for a certain period. If such information accumulates in the system, there is a possibility of forecasting the preferences and estimating the nearest consequences of the decisions.

Fig. 1.1. Hierarchy of criteria for a choice of vibroisolation systems


    Example of use of a hierarchy analysis method

    Let us consider an application of a hierarchical analysis method with dynamic preferences for forecasting suitability of three alternate shock absorbers. Period of forecasting is t = 1...5 years. The hierarchy of quality criteria is showed on Fig. 1.1. Alternatives are: A1 — pneumatic vibration damper, A2 — hydropneumatic damper, A3 — coil spring. The preferences, stated by the experts for criteria of quality and alternatives, are expressed by functions, being in Table 1.1, and are shown in Table 1.2.

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Table 1.1. Expressed by functions

Function             The function description       Notes                               
       Const         For any t 1 < const < 9        Constancy of preference in time     
a1(t) + a2           Linear function from t,        Linear increase of preference of    
                     inverse function --- hyperbola one alternative before other in time
b1log(t+1) + b2      Logarithmic growth             Fast increase of preference of one  
                                                    alternative before other up to some 
                                                    t, after which slow increase follows
c1ec2t+c3            Exponential growth or          Slow increase or reduction of       
                     decrease (c 2 < 0)             preference in time, for which fast  
                                                    increase (reduction) follows        
di t2 + d21 + d3     Parabola                       Increase up to a maximum, and       
                                                    then decrease (or on the contrary)  
fi tn sin(t+f2) + f3 Oscillatory function           Fluctuations of preferences in time 
                                                    with growing (n > 0) or decreasing  
                                                    (n < 0) amplitude                   
Accidents            Functions, having breaks,      Extremely sharp changes of          
                     which it is necessary to       preferences intensity               
                     specify                                                            

Table 1.2. The preferences, stated by the experts for criteria of quality and alternatives

Reliability          Pneumatic      Hydropneumatic                Coil spring       
Pneumatic            y 11 = 1       y 12 = 1/y21                 y 13 = 1/y 31      
Hydropneumatic  y21 = 0.01-e1-1 t+2        y22 = 1               y23 = 1/y 32       
Coil spring        y 31 = 0.51+5        y32 = -0.51+3               y33 = 1         
    Comfort          Pneumatic      Hydropneumatic         Coil spring              
Pneumatic            y 11 = 1       y 12 = 1/y21           y 13 = 1.0-log(t+1)+3    
Hydropneumatic  y21 = 0.01-e1.1 t+3        y22 = 1         y 23 = 1.0-log(t+1)+5    
Coil spring        y 31 = 1/y 13    y 32 = 1/y23                    y33 = 1         
Cost price           Pneumatic      Hydropneumatic                Coil spring       
Pneumatic            y 11 = 1       y 12 = 3.8-log( t+1)+3      y 13 = 0.41+3.0     
Hydropneumatic     y 21 = 1/y 12           y22 = 1               y23 = 1/y 32       
Coil spring        y 31 = 1/y 13        y32 = -0.51+7               y33 = 1         
Competitiveness      Pneumatic      Hydropneumatic         Coil spring              
Pneumatic            y 11 = 1       y 12 = 1/y21           y 13 = 0.2512+0.51+1     
Hydropneumatic     y 21 = 1.01+3           y22 = 1         y23 = 1.0-t0.7-sin(t+1)+5
Coil spring        y 31 = 1/y 13    y 32 = 1/y23                    y33 = 1         

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    Eigen vectors of pair comparison matrixes and convolution on the hierarchy were calculated numerically. It has enabled the achievement of functional dependenceof the priorities vector w(t) concerning hierarchy focus (Fig. 1.2).


Hierarchy focus: Effective shock damping system

Fig. 1.2. Change of results priorities

    The analysis of results show that the priority of hydraulic system (A2) will grow; a coil spring (A3) will monotonously be reduced; pneumatic (A1) — will be wavy reduced.


    Fuzzy sets in decisions making

   The theory of fuzzy sets, as offered by [15], is applied to decision-making with success. The expert estimations of alternate variants on quality criteria may be submitted as fuzzy sets. For ordering fuzzy numbers there is a set of techniques, which differ from each other by the method used for convolution and construction of the fuzzy relations, which may be defined as the preference relations between objects. To choose the best variants on the criteria set it is necessary to have at one’s disposal the information about criteria priorities and about the types of probable relations between them. The theory of fuzzy sets gives various means for taking into account the mutual relations of criteria: use of weight factors, fuzzy relations of preference, fuzzy logical reasoning on rules of definition of the best alternative and so on [16, 17]. Broad opportunities for representation of knowledge and the simplicity of computing procedures make this theory a very attractive tool for creation of computer applications for decision-making support. Thus it is necessary to carry out theoretical and experimental research of results obtained from systems with the purpose of checking their adequacy, consistency, reliability and so on. As described here, making decision systems involves a set of algorithms based on fuzzy set theory. One of the simplest approaches allows for determination of the best

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