Review of Business and Economics Studies, 2018, том 6, № 3
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Review of Business and Economics Studies EDITOR-IN-CHIEF Prof. Alexander Ilyinsky Dean, International Finance Faculty, Financial University, Moscow, Russia ailyinsky@fa.ru EXECUTIVE EDITOR Dr. Zbigniew Mierzwa EDITORIAL BOARD Dr. Mark Aleksanyan Adam Smith Business School, The Business School, University of Glasgow, UK Prof. Edoardo Croci Research Director, IEFE Centre for Research on Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy, Università Bocconi, Italy Prof. Moorad Choudhry Dept.of Mathematical Sciences, Brunel University, UK Prof. David G. Dickinson Department of Economics, Birmingham Business School, University of Birmingham, UK Prof. Chien-Te Fan Institute of Law for Science and Technology, National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan Prof. Wing M. Fok Director, Asia Business Studies, College of Business, Loyola University New Orleans, USA Prof. Konstantin P. Glushchenko Faculty of Economics, Novosibirsk State University, Russia Prof. George E. Halkos Associate Editor in Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press; Director of Operations Research Laboratory, University of Thessaly, Greece Dr. Christopher A. Hartwell President, CASE — Center for Social and Economic Research, Warsaw, Poland Prof. Sebastian Jaimungal Associate Chair of Graduate Studies, Dept. Statistical Sciences & Mathematical Finance Program, University of Toronto, Canada Prof. Vladimir Kvint Chair of Financial Strategy, Moscow School of Economics, Moscow State University, Russia Prof. Alexander Melnikov Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, University of Alberta, Canada Prof. George Kleiner Deputy Director, Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia Prof. Kern K. Kwong Director, Asian Pacific Business Institute, California State University, Los Angeles, USA Prof. Dimitrios Mavrakis Director, Energy Policy and Development Centre, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Greece Prof. Stephen McGuire Director, Entrepreneurship Institute, California State University, Los Angeles, USA Prof. Rustem Nureev Сhairman for Research of the Department of Economic Theory, Financial University, Russia Dr. Oleg V. Pavlov Associate Professor of Economics and System Dynamics, Department of Social Science and Policy Studies, Worcester Polytechnic Institute, USA Prof. Boris Porfiriev Deputy Director, Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia Prof. Thomas Renstrom Durham University Business School, Department of Economics and Finance, Durham University Prof. Alan Sangster Professor of Accounting (Business and Management) at University of Sussex, UK Prof. Svetlozar T. Rachev Professor of Finance, College of Business, Stony Brook University, USA Prof. Boris Rubtsov Deputy chairman of Department of financial markets and banks for R&D, Financial University, Russia Dr. Shen Minghao Director of Center for Cantonese Merchants Research, Guangdong University of Foreign Studies, China Prof. Dmitry Sorokin Chairman for Research, Financial University, Russia Prof. Robert L. Tang Chancellor for Academic, De La Salle College of Saint Benilde, Manila, The Philippines Dr. Dimitrios Tsomocos Saïd Business School, Fellow in Management, University of Oxford; Senior Research Associate, Financial Markets Group, London School of Economics, UK REVIEW OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS STUDIES (ROBES) is the quarterly peerreviewed scholarly journal published by the Financial University under the Government of Russian Federation, Moscow. Journal’s mission is to provide scientific perspective on wide range of topical economic and business subjects. CONTACT INFORMATION Financial University Leningradsky prospekt, 53, office 5.6 123995 Moscow Russian Federation Telephone: +7 (499) 943-98-02 Website: www.robes.fa.ru AUTHOR INQUIRIES Inquiries relating to the submission of articles can be sent by electronic mail to robes@fa.ru. COPYRIGHT AND PHOTOCOPYING © 2018 Review of Business and Economics Studies. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored or transmitted in any form or by any means without the prior permission in writing from the copyright holder. Single photocopies of articles may be made for personal use as allowed by national copyright laws. ISSN 2308-944X
Вестник исследований бизнеса и экономики ГЛАВНЫЙ РЕДАКТОР А.И. Ильинский, профессор, декан Международного финансо вого факультета Финансового университета ВЫПУСКАЮЩИЙ РЕДАКТОР Збигнев Межва, д-р экон. наук РЕДАКЦИОННЫЙ СОВЕТ М.М. Алексанян, профессор Бизнесшколы им. Адама Смита, Университет Глазго (Великобритания) К. Вонг, профессор, директор Института азиатско-тихоокеанского бизнеса Университета штата Калифорния, Лос-Анджелес (США) К.П. Глущенко, профессор экономического факультета Новосибирского госуниверситета С. Джеимангал, профессор Департамента статистики и математических финансов Университета Торонто (Канада) Д. Дикинсон, профессор Департамента экономики Бирмингемской бизнесшколы, Бирмингемский университет (Великобритания) В.Л. Квинт, заведующий кафедрой финансовой стратегии Московской школы экономики МГУ, профессор Школы бизнеса Лассальского университета (США) Г. Б. Клейнер, профессор, член-корреспондент РАН, заместитель директора Центрального экономико-математического института РАН Э. Крочи, профессор, директор по научной работе Центра исследований в области энергетики и экономики окружающей среды Университета Боккони (Италия) Д. Мавракис, профессор, директор Центра политики и развития энергетики Национального университета Афин (Греция) С. Макгвайр, профессор, директор Института предпринимательства Университета штата Калифорния, Лос-Анджелес (США) А. Мельников, профессор Депар та мента математических и ста тистических исследований Университета провинции Альберта (Канада) Р.М. Нуреев, профессор, научный руководитель Департамента экономической теории Финансового университета О.В. Павлов, профессор Депар та мента по литологии и полити ческих исследований Ворчестерского политехнического института (США) Б.Н. Порфирьев, профессор, член-корреспондент РАН, заместитель директора Института народнохозяйственного прогнозирования РАН С. Рачев, профессор Бизнес-кол леджа Университета Стони Брук (США) Т. Ренстром, профессор, Школа Бизнеса Даремского университета, Департамент Экономики и Финансов Б.Б. Рубцов, профессор, заместитель руководителя Департамента финансовых рынков и банков по НИР Финансового университета А. Сангстер, профессор, Сассекский университет (Великобритания) Д.Е. Сорокин, профессор, членкорреспондент РАН, научный руководитель Финансового университета Р. Тан, профессор, ректор Колледжа Де Ла Саль Св. Бенильды (Филиппины) Д. Тсомокос, Оксфордский университет, старший научный сотрудник Лондонской школы экономики (Великобритания) Ч.Т. Фан, профессор, Институт права в области науки и технологии, национальный университет Цин Хуа (Тайвань) В. Фок, профессор, директор по исследованиям азиатского бизнеса Бизнес-колледжа Университета Лойола (США) Д.Е. Халкос, профессор, Университет Фессалии (Греция) К.А. Хартвелл, президент Центра социальных и экономических исследований CASE (Польша) М. Чудри, профессор, Университет Брунеля (Великобритания) М. Шен, декан Центра кантонских рыночных исследований Гуандунского университета (КНР) Редакция научных журналов Финансового университета 123995, Москва, ГСП-5, Ленинградский пр-т, 53, комн. 5.6 Тел. 8 (499) 943-98-02. Интернет: www.robes.fa.ru. Журнал “Review of Business and Economics Studies” («Вест ник исследований бизнеса и экономики») зарегистрирован в Федеральной службе по надзору в сфере связи, информационных технологий и массовых коммуникаций 15 сентября 2016 г. Свидетельство о регистрации ПИ № ФС77-67072. Подписано в печать: 29.08.2018. Формат 60 × 84 1/8. Заказ № 833 от 29.08.2018. Отпечатано в Отделе полиграфии Финуниверситета (Ленинградский проспект, д. 49). 16+
Performance Analysis Based on Adequate Risk-Adjusted Measures Alexander Melnikov, Daria Vyachkileva . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 The Instruments to Reform the World System of Currencies: Internationalising the Currencies of the BRICS Mikhail Zharikov . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19 A Law of Social Development Igor Varyash . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29 The Role of Personality Traits in Assessing the State of the Russian Society by Persons with Different Economic Behaviour Maria Gagarina . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .34 Russia’s Foreign Trade under the Anti-Russian Sanctions Sergey Kazantsev . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .44 Psychological Factors of Multiple Debt Repayment Strategies Maria Gagarina, Tatiana Goroshnikova . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .57 Analysis of Cryptocurrency Risks and Methods of their Mitigation in Contemporary Market Conditions Elena Nadyrova . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 Review of Business and Economics Studies Volume 6, Number 3, 2018
Вестник исследований бизнеса и экономики № 3, 2018 Анализ инвестиционной деятельности на основе количественных мер, настроенных на риск Александр Мельников, Дарья К. Вячкилева . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Инструменты реформы мировой валютной системы: интернационализация валют стран БРИКС Михаил Жариков . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Закон социального развития Игорь Варьяш . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Роль личностных черт в оценке состояния российского общества лицами с различным экономическим поведением Мария Гагарина . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 Внешняя торговля России в условиях санкций Сергей Казанцев . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 Психологические факторы стратегий погашения множественных задолженностей Мария Гагарина, Татьяна Горошникова . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 Анализ рисков криптовалют и способы их минимизации в современных рыночных условиях Елена Надырова . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
Review of Business and Economics Studies doi: 10.26794/2308–944X‑2018–6–2‑5‑18 2018, Vol. 6, No. 3, 5‑18 Performance Analysis Based on Adequate Risk-Adjusted Measures Alexander Melnikov*, daria Vyachkileva** * Professor, doctor of Science in Physics and Mathematics, melnikov@ualberta.ca ** MSc., student, Mathematical Finance Program, vyachkil@ualberta.ca department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, 632 CAB, University of Alberta, Canada, T6G 2G1 Phone: +1‑780‑492‑0568; Fax: +1‑780‑492‑6826 Abstract There are many potential investment options for investors and they should be able to compare them on a risk‑adjusted basis. if investors rely only on pure return they can be exposed to a high risk. Therefore, many investors rely on adequate performance measures to evaluate potential investment opportunities. in this paper, we describe widely used risk‑adjusted performance measures and add correlation through the M3 measure. We apply described measures to real financial data in order to rank managers and compare rankings between measures. We also look at the following year measures to compare the results with predictions. Keywords: performance measures; correlation; manager ranking JEL classification G11, G17 Introduction According to the Investment Company Institute (2018) in 2017 total net assets of worldwide regulated open-end funds was more than $ 49 trillion and have more than doubled in the past decade. Therefore, investors need instruments to analyse and choose the best funds. Investors rely on risk-adjusted measures. However, there are a lot of measures that can be used, and it is not clear which ones are better or worse since none of the investors uses the same measures. In addition, such variety can be explained by investors not being able to define risk in such a way that it would incorporate all necessary parameters. We present several performance measures discussing the advantages and disadvantages of each. In addition, to giving different risk definitions we will incorporate a correlation using the M3 measure (see Muralidhar (2000)). Correlation is an important parameter when one wants to create a portfolio rather than investing in a single stock. If we define risk as a standard deviation of stock returns (as most investors do) or some sort of standard deviation, then if we have a portfolio of two or more stocks then the combined standard deviation is not a sum of single standard deviations. Instead, we have a correlation term and a portfolio standard deviation looks like this 2 2 2 2 2 , 2 , Portfolio A A B N A B A B A B σ = σ ω + σ ω + ρ ω ω σ σ where A σ and B σ are standard deviations of stocks A and B respectively, A ω and B ω are weights invested om stocks A and B respectively, ,A B ρ is a correlation between stocks A and B. It is clear from this equation that investors should seek negative or small correlation to decrease the portfolio risk. That is why it is important to be able to select new investments not only by their returns but also making an adjustment for correlation between new stock and an existing portfolio. Another way to incorporate correlation is to use the approach that was proposed by Dowd (2000). His method shows how to adjust for correlation using the most popular and widely used risk-adjusted measure — Sharpe ratio. Dowd’s basic idea is the following: calculate the Sharpe ratio before accepting new stock and calculate on the stock was accepted a while ago, then we can compare these two ratios and if it increased then we would proceed with the deal. In this case, we account for correlation when we calculate the new Sharpe Ratio.
In addition, in a recent research done by Ornelas, Silva Júnior, and Fernandes (2010) shows that performance ratios matter. Previously, Eling (2008) showed that some measures have a very high correlation in ranking with the Sharpe ratio and it might be enough just to look at Sharpe Ratio. However, Ornelas, Silva Júnior, and Fernandes (2010) exploited other measures in their research and agreed with Eling to some degree but not all measures produced a high correlation. Therefore, we should look at and compare measures and we cannot use only the Sharpe Ratio. Risk-Adjusted Performance Measures As was mentioned previously there are many risk-adjusted performance measures and their variations. In this paper, we describe some of the most commonly used measures and discuss their advantages and disadvantages. More detailed information can be found in Bacon (2013), Dowd (2000), Goodwin (1998), Grinold and Khan (1999), Harlow (1991), Lo (2002), Madgon-Ismail and Atiya (2004), Modigliani and Modigliani (1997), Muralidhar (2000, 2001, 2005), Papageorgiou (2005), Rollinger and Hoffman (2015), Prokopczuk, Rachev, and Truck (2004), Sharpe (1966, 1994), Sortino and van der Meer (1991) and Young (1991). Table 1 shows some widely used measure. As we can see from Table 1 there are multiple definitions of risk and it is almost impossible to choose one. However, investors can choose the one that suits their vision of the market the best. We will apply all these measures to real-life financial data and later we will describe how investors can incorporate correlation using Dowd’s (2000) approach. Fund case-studies In this section, we describe the procedure that was used to calculate all ratios and the way funds were selected. Article by Bill Harris “‘The 10 Biggest Mutual Funds: Are They Really Worth Your Money?” in Forbs brought our attention and 8 out of 10 funds presented were chosen for the illustration. Two funds from this article were eliminated because they are fixed income funds. To be able to compare apples to apples they were not selected because comparison would not be fair when we have to select a benchmark. Monthly data was taken for the 11 years from 1/1/2006 up to 1/1/2017 for all 8 funds. First, ten years were used to analyse the risk-adjusted performance of all funds when the last year was used to compare the results for the previous 10 years and the following year. The data were obtained for all funds and for the benchmark which was chosen to be S&P500 because funds are different by their nature and we need a common benchmark. Also, one should note that the financial crisis of 2008–2010 was included in calculations. Therefore, some returns were small however we decided they are not outliers because it is a part of the risk of investing in a market. Sharpe Ratio First, let’s show how the Sharpe Ratio can be applied to the 8 selected funds. As we know from the definition of the Sharpe ratio we need an appropriate risk-free rate. In this example, US 10 years T-Bond rate as of 12/31/2005 was chosen and equal to 4.39%. 10 years T-Bonds were chosen because we want to make sure we would make more on our investments rather than investing in a risk-free rate and leaving money there for 10 years. In Table 2 we can see the Sharpe ratio and all the information needed for all 8 funds: As we can see from the Table 2 all funds produce positive returns and greater than the risk-free rate. Therefore, it would be more beneficial for investors in a long run to invest in any of these funds rather than risk-free rate even though the financial crisis of 2008–2010 are included in this dataset. Table 2 allows us to make the following conclusions: If we compared pure return without adjusting for risk, then the fund 3 would be the most attractive. Fund 3 was the best even after adjusting for the risk (standard deviation) because its return to risk had the best ratio. Fund 6 produced a quite small annual return over the last 10 years comparing to the risk they took. They produced only 5.13% return per year, but they took 22.05% of the risk, which was the highest risk among all 8 funds. In addition, maybe fund 5 did not produce the highest return but its risk was relatively small keeping in mind that the Financial Crisis period was included and fund 5 got the 5th rank. Performance Analysis Based on Adequate Risk-Adjusted Measures
Performance Analysis Based on Adequate Risk-Adjusted Measures Table 1 Risk-adjusted performance measures Name Definition Advantages Disadvantages Sharpe Ratio f R SR µ − = σ – Allows to compare and rank fund /managers – Most of its advantages and disadvantages are known – σ is not always an appropriate risk measure – σ punishes companies for upward momentum – no interpretation of the number information Ratio ER IR = σ – Useful measure when the benchmark is carefully chosen – Not a complete statistic – only maximizing iR can lead to wrong decisions M3 ( ) ( ) 1 B f r CAP a bR a b R = µ + + − − – Adjust for correlation – Provide guidance on how to build a portfolio – Correlation is not stable over time – Hard to compare funds on the after‑fee basis Sortino Ratio T R S TDD µ − = – Accounts only for the downside deviation – Accounts for risk better if the distribution is not symmetric – does not account for correlation – No guidance on how to build a portfolio Calmar Ratio f R Calmar MDD µ − = – Shows a long‑term perspective – Shows the cumulative loss investors can have – Not sensitive to momentum changes – No easy way to change frequencies – Needs a lot of time to reflect momentum changes RARoC RAROC VaR µ = – Allows to compare businesses with different sources of risk – A powerful tool in asset allocation and risk control – Hard to determine Cost of Capital Rate – More accounting‑based ratio –Hard to calculate VaR if a small number of returns are present Source: the authors. Note: ( ) 1 1 T t t t E R R T = µ = = ∑ — mean return ( ) 2 2 1 1 T t t R T = σ = −µ ∑ — variance of returns ( ) 1 1 t t T P B t ER R R T = = − ∑ — mean excess return over the benchmark, where tP R — return of the portfolio, t B R — return of the benchmark ( ) 2 1 1 1 T t t ER ER T = σ = − − ∑ — standard deviation of excess return, where t t t P B ER R R = −
As we can see Sharpe ratio gives different ranking rather than a pure return. In addition, it allows easy calculations and comparison between the fund’s return and risk. Now let’s compare the results for the following year. Risk-free rate was chosen as 1-year US rates of 0.89%. As we can see from the Table 3 that all Sharpe ratios increased because in the previous examples Financial Crisis was included. Table 3 allows us to make the following conclusions: If we compare just pure annual returns, then fund 2 would have the first place but fund 2 has one of the highest risks among all 8 funds which brings fund 2 to the 4th place. Previous Sharpe Ratio ranked fund 6 as the least attractive fund. However, as we can see from its performance in the following year fund 6 got one of the highest returns and one of the lowest risks. That is why Sharpe ratio ranked fund 6 as the first one. Another big change was for fund 5. Even with Financial Crisis fund 5 had the average annual return of 5.13%. However, in 2017 it returns dropped to 2.4% which brought it to the last place even though it has the lowest risk among all 8 funds. Table 2 Sharpe ratio case-studies for 2006–2016 Fund Return Standard Deviation Sharpe Ratio Rank F 4.39% 0 1 6.56% 14.15% 0.15313 Vi 2 6.33% 21.33% 0.09116 Vii 3 10.00% 18.77% 0.29881 i 4 9.29% 19.83% 0.24690 iV 5 5.13% 4.54% 0.16248 V 6 5.51% 22.05% 0.05064 Viii 7 9.13% 18.38% 0.25801 iii 8 9.60% 18.53% 0.28103 ii Source: the authors. iσ — standard deviation of stock i or portfolio i B σ — standard deviation of the benchmark ( ) ( ) 2 2 ,2 2 1 1,1 1 B T B B a σ −ρ = σ −ρ — portion invested in a fund 1 ,1,T B B B b a σ = ρ − ρ σ — portion invested in the benchmark T R — target return ( ) ( ) 2 1 1 0,T t T t TDD Min R R T = = − ∑ — target downside deviation ThroughvaluePeakvalue Peakvalue MDD = — maximum drawdown ( ) ( ) : orVaR VaR P X VaR f x dx − −∞ < − = α = α ∫ — where X is a random variable that the represents the profit and loss of the business. Performance Analysis Based on Adequate Risk-Adjusted Measures
Information Ratio First, let’s discuss how the benchmark was selected and the details of these calculations. Since funds that were selected have different nature then it would be beneficial for all of them to select a benchmark which is a whole market or S&P500 since some of these funds are stock market indexes, some are growth funds, etc. Therefore, to be consistent, S&P500 was selected as a benchmark. As we know from the definition of the Information ratio we need to have an average annual excess return and standard deviation of the excess return. Therefore, to obtain these values annual returns for each fund were used then S&P500 annual returns were subtracted from the fund’s returns. Further, the average was taken and the standard deviation for each fund. Hence, we can see the result of the calculations in Table 4. As we can see from Table 4 not many funds managed to produce a positive excess return over the 10 years if the market (S&P500) was selected as a benchmark. Table 4 allows us to make the following conclusions: As in the Sharpe ratio fund, 3 managed to produce the highest excess return. However, in the relationship to a benchmark, this fund was exposed to one of the highest risks among all 8 funds. Fund 8 produced almost the same excess return as fund 3. However, fund 8 did not take as much “extra” risk as fund 3. Therefore, now fund 8 has the highest Information ratio and the lowest tracking error among all funds. It means that Table 3 Sharpe ratio case-studies for 2017 Fund Return Standard Deviation Sharpe Previous Sharpe Ranking Previous Ranking Increase/ Decrease F 0.89% 0.00% 1 8.99% 3.83% 2.12 0.1531 Vi Vi increase 2 24.63% 7.17% 3.31 0.0912 iV Vii increase 3 24.39% 9.15% 2.57 0.2988 V i increase 4 17.84% 8.94% 1.90 0.2469 Vii iV increase 5 2.39% 1.79% 0.84 0.1625 Viii V increase 6 23.83% 4.42% 5.20 0.0506 i Viii increase 7 19.48% 4.33% 4.30 0.2580 iii iii increase 8 18.98% 4.18% 4.33 0.2810 ii ii increase Source: the authors. Table 4 Information ratio case-studies for 2006–2016 Fund Return/Excess Return Standard Deviation Information Ratio Rank B 7.25% 18.74% 1 –0.69% 8.85% –0.0781 Vi 2 –0.91% 12.17% –0.0750 V 3 2.75% 10.18% 0.2702 iii 4 2.04% 8.50% 0.2399 iV 5 –2.12% 18.30% –0.1158 Vi 6 –1.74% 11.95% –0.1456 Viii 7 1.88% 5.73% 0.3290 ii 8 2.35% 5.53% 0.4251 i Source: the authors. Performance Analysis Based on Adequate Risk-Adjusted Measures
funds 8 is more attractive for the investor rather than funds 3 if we compare it to the Sharpe ratio. As we compare Information Ratio ranking with the Sharpe ratio overall there is a difference but most of the funds are changed places by one ranking. However, Information ratio allows us to compare returns not only with a risk-free rate but it can be interpreted as how much “additional” risk each fund brings to the market risk. Finally, if we use Grinold and Khan (1999) approach and compare Information ratio with 0.5, 0.75, and 1.0 we can see that none of the funds produced even “good” Information ratio over the 10 years period. Now let’s compare the results for the following year. There are few things could be noted from the Table 5. Almost all funds except for fund 2 had a negative excess return which means that all of them did not manage to beat the benchmark for the following year. Fund 8 that was previously ranked the worst fund now got the third rank and it is one of two funds which information ratio increased even though it is still negative. Since almost all funds have negative information ratio then based on the information ratio investor shouldn’t invest in any of the funds. Even fund 2 which have a positive information ratio have a ratio of 0.01. Table 5 Information ratio case-studies for 2017 Fund Return/Excess Return Standard Deviation Information Ratio Previous IR Ranking Previous Ranking Increase/ Decrease B 17.32% 5.68% 1 –12.64% 8.82% –1.4333 –0.0781 Vii Vi decrease 2 0.15% 10.65% 0.0137 –0.0750 i V increase 3 –0.21% 13.23% –0.0160 0.2702 ii iii decrease 4 –5.54% 12.90% –0.4294 0.2399 iV iV decrease 5 –17.90% 6.04% –2.9618 –0.1158 Viii Vi decrease 6 –0.39% 7.65% –0.0515 –0.1456 iii Viii increase 7 –3.98% 8.09% –0.4923 0.3290 V ii decrease 8 –4.39% 7.88% –0.5569 0.4251 Vi i decrease Source: the authors. Table 6 M2 ratio case-studies for 2006–2016 Fund Return Standard Deviation d RAP Rank F 4.39% 0.00% B 7.25% 18.74% 1 6.56% 14.15% 0.3247 7.26% Vi 2 6.33% 21.33% –0.1214 6.10% Vii 3 10.00% 18.77% –0.0015 9.99% i 4 9.29% 19.83% –0.0551 9.02% iV 5 5.13% 4.54% 3.1264 7.43% V 6 5.51% 22.05% –0.1501 5.34% Viii 7 9.13% 18.38% 0.0196 9.22% iii 8 9.60% 18.53% 0.0111 9.66% ii Source: the authors. Performance Analysis Based on Adequate Risk-Adjusted Measures
M2 Ratio As we know from the definition of M2 we need a benchmark and a risk-free rate. Risk-free rate and the benchmark were chosen the same way and the same values as in Sharpe and Information ratios. Results of the calculations can be found in Table 6. As we know from the nature of M2 measure it produces the same ranking as a Sharpe Ratio but instead of having a number which can be hard or impossible to interpret (Sharpe ratio), RAP gives investors a risk-adjusted return that was calculated based on the leverage/deleverage of the portfolio. Table 6 allows us to make the following conclusions: Funds 1, 5, 7, and 8 produced higher risk-adjusted return rather than a pure return. However, funds 2, 3, 4, 6 produce a lower risk-adjusted return. On a pure return fund, 5 did not look very attractive to the investors. However, it was not exposed to a lot of risks (just 4.54%) and after adjusting for risk fund 5 produced a 7.43% return. Fund 6 was exposed to the highest risk among all funds which brought this fund to the 8th place. Now let’s compare the results with the following year: There are few things could be noted from the Table 7: Fund 6 had the highest risk-adjusted return of 30%. Fund 5 had the only RAP measure that decreased for the following year in comparison to the previous year. However, its risk-adjusted return was 5.6% when the pure return was only 2.4%. Fund 3 moved from the first place to the fifth having a risk-adjusted return of 15.46% when the pure return was 24.4%. M3 Ratio As we established, in the beginning, it is important to adjust for the correlation between a benchmark and a fund’s return. One of the measures that adjust for the correlation is M3. It requires benchmark returns (S&P500), risk-free rate (US T-Bond) and a target tracking error. For the target tracking error was 7% selected. Which corresponds to 0.9302 of the target correlation ( ) 2 2 0.07 1 2 0.1874 − × . The choice of the tracking error was made based on the risk-free return and the return of a benchmark. Investors always should seek a target return higher than a risk-free therefore it is higher than 4.4% but it is lower than the market because we want to be conservative and prepare for a lower return of the market than in previous years. Investors can choose any target tracking error, but calculations will be exactly the same. Table 8 allows us to make the following conclusions: Correlation influences ranking funds/managers. For example, the Sharpe ratio suggested that Table 7 M2 ratio case-studies for 2017 Fund Return Standard Deviation d RAP Previous RAP Ranking Previous Ranking Increase/ Decrease F 0.89% 0.00% B 17.32% 5.68% 1 8.99% 3.83% 0.4831 12.90% 7.26% Vi Vi increase 2 24.63% 7.17% –0.2086 19.68% 6.10% iV Vii increase 3 24.39% 9.15% –0.3798 15.46% 9.99% V i increase 4 17.84% 8.94% –0.3651 11.65% 9.02% Vii iV increase 5 2.39% 1.79% 2.1761 5.66% 7.43% Viii V decrease 6 23.83% 4.42% 0.2854 30.38% 5.34% i Viii increase 7 19.48% 4.33% 0.3113 25.27% 9.22% iii iii increase 8 18.98% 4.18% 0.3591 25.48% 9.66% ii ii increase Source: the authors. Performance Analysis Based on Adequate Risk-Adjusted Measures
Table 8 M3 ratio case-studies for 2006–2016 Fund Return Standard Deviation 1,B ρ d TE a b 1-a-b M3 Rank F 4.39% 0.00% 0 B 7.25% 18.74% 1 100% 1 6.56% 14.15% 0.8921 132.47% 7.26% 1.0758 0.2057 –0.2815 7.31% Vi 2 6.33% 21.33% 0.8231 87.86% 6.10% 0.5678 0.3983 0.0339 6.63% Vii 3 10.00% 18.77% 0.8526 99.85% 9.99% 0.7014 0.3313 –0.0327 9.27% iii 4 9.29% 19.83% 0.9043 94.49% 9.02% 0.8125 0.1526 0.0349 8.80% iV 5 5.13% 4.54% 0.2155 412.64% 7.43% 1.5509 0.8492 –1.4001 7.96% V 6 5.51% 22.05% 0.8404 84.99% 5.34% 0.5755 0.3611 0.0634 6.06% Viii 7 9.13% 18.38% 0.9525 101.96% 9.22% 1.2292 –0.2182 –0.0110 9.60% ii 8 9.60% 18.53% 0.9560 101.11% 9.66% 1.2653 –0.2661 0.0008 10.22% i Source: the authors. Table 9 M3 ratio case-studies for 2017 Fund Return Standard Deviation 1,B ρ d M3 Previous M3 Rank Previous Rank Increase/ Decrease F 0.89% 0.00% 0 B 17.32% 5.68% 1 100% 1 8.99% 3.83% –71.22% 148.31% 37.62% 7.31% i Vi increase 2 24.63% 7.17% –36.59% 79.14% 30.69% 6.63% Vi Vii increase 3 24.39% 9.15% –56.96% 62.02% 33.09% 9.27% V iii increase 4 17.84% 8.94% –53.50% 63.49% 27.30% 8.80% Vii iV increase 5 2.39% 1.79% –5.61% 317.61% 10.36% 7.96% Viii V increase 6 23.83% 4.42% –13.54% 128.54% 35.90% 6.06% ii Viii increase 7 19.48% 4.33% –29.64% 131.13% 34.56% 9.60% iii ii increase 8 18.98% 4.18% –26.33% 135.91% 33.92% 10.22% iV i increase Fund a b 1-a-b Previous a Previous b Previous 1-a-b TE Previous TE 1 2.051 1.224 –2.276 1.076 0.206 –0.282 12.90% 7.26% 2 0.826 0.621 –0.447 0.568 0.398 0.034 19.68% 6.10% 3 0.733 0.912 –0.645 0.701 0.331 –0.033 15.46% 9.99% 4 0.730 0.854 –0.584 0.813 0.153 0.035 11.65% 9.02% 5 3.089 0.294 –2.382 1.551 0.849 –1.400 5.66% 7.43% 6 1.260 0.372 –0.632 0.576 0.361 0.063 30.38% 5.34% 7 1.333 0.541 –0.874 1.229 –0.218 –0.011 25.27% 9.22% 8 1.368 0.504 –0.872 1.265 –0.266 0.001 25.48% 9.66% Source: the authors. Performance Analysis Based on Adequate Risk-Adjusted Measures